#fomc

⚠️ FOMC in Focus: Potential Turning Point

Jerome Powell could be heading into his final Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Chair.

Key setup:

* Rate decision: 2 PM ET, press conference at 2:30 PM

* Markets pricing ~99% chance of a hold at 3.50–3.75% (3rd straight pause)

Transition risk:

* Powell’s term ends May 15

* Kevin Warsh seen as a potential successor

* Inherits:

    * Rates at 3.50–3.75%

    * CPI around 3.3%

    * Dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026

A leadership shift with tight policy constraints and markets highly sensitive to forward guidance.