While Bitcoin is at $77k and climbing, $XRP is trading at $1.43, roughly where it has been over the last three months.
The altcoin’s inability to participate in one of the market’s most sustained recovery phases raises a legitimate question: is $XRP facing a temporary lag, or is something more structural at play in its relative performance?
Ripple Price Analysis: The $USDT Pair
$XRP is still trapped inside the descending channel that has controlled price action since the late-2025 highs, with no confirmed breakout yet. The gap between current levels and major resistance still makes a bullish recovery case hard to justify. The 100-day moving average has slipped to around $1.50, while the 200-day sits near $1.80.
Both averages continue trending lower and haven’t been convincingly challenged by price so far.
One slight improvement is the RSI, which has bounced back from the heavily oversold February readings and is now holding above 50 — its strongest sustained level since before the broader downtrend began. That’s a small positive, but without price strength it means little on its own.
The key area remains $1.80, where heavy supply could reshape sentiment if broken. Reaching it would still require more than a 20% rally from current levels, and even then it would remain resistance within the wider bearish structure.
On the downside, $1.20 stands as the last major support before the psychological $1.00 level starts coming into focus.
The $BTC Pair
If the $USDT chart looks weak, the $BTC pair looks even worse. $XRP/$BTC is trading near 1,840 sats, marking a fresh multi-month low and drifting toward levels last seen before the previous bull cycle began.
While Bitcoin has broken out of its descending channel, reclaimed the 100-day moving average, and is pushing toward $80k, $XRP versus Bitcoin continues printing new lows.
The 100-day MA around 2,000 sats and the 200-day MA near 2,200 sats are both trending downward overhead, with price failing to seriously test either since early 2026. RSI is sitting near 40 — not weak enough to trigger a relief bounce, but not strong enough to signal momentum returning either.
The next key support sits near 1,800 sats, which was the February capitulation low. Below that, the lower trendline boundary around 1,600 sats could become the final possible reversal zone.
Unless $XRP can reclaim 2,000 sats and sustain above it, any gains in dollar terms may still mean underperformance against $BTC and that remains the clearest measure of whether XRP is truly recovering or simply rising with the broader market.
