$FTT SBF has only two routes to get out:
1. Forget about a presidential pardon; misappropriating funds is like theft, and his commercial credit rating has tanked. Both parties are unwilling to risk their image for him. Unless he can offer more returns, but FTX has already been drained once.
2. Legal maneuvers; the best-case scenario is a sentence reduction to 10-20 years. The prerequisites are meeting several conditions, such as: crypto regulations easing up, FTX completing 100% payouts, and reducing societal pressure; changing the presiding judge + a smooth appeal;

FTT is now more of a nostalgic token, as creditors in bankruptcy proceedings are mainly getting USD. SBF's hope to bounce back through the 'ecosystem' is a pipe dream in the short run.
If you're holding $FTT or just watching, the clearest takeaway is: SBF isn't getting out anytime soon, but FTX creditors are likely to get their funds back quickly.

The lottery expectation hinges on the upcoming judge change and another appeal, with almost zero certainty. However, the potential returns are high, but it's not worth a hefty investment.