$BTC We are currently retesting a major resistance / bearish continuation level on the HTF.

Looking back at the structure from the all-time high down to the current local bottom at 59k, we can see it was almost a straight move down, consisting of 5 bearish monthly candles in a row.

Those candles created an imbalance between 79.4k-83.8k, which has now finally been tapped after a few months of consolidation at the lows.

The structure here does not specifically signal anything bullish. Markets move both ways and seek rebalance when a trend starts running into exhaustion or when liquidity becomes thinner, and that is exactly what we are seeing here.

This move up is the first significant upside pullback throughout this bear market. Yes, we had smaller pullbacks before, but nothing you can clearly point towards at on the monthly chart, which makes them LTF moves relative to this timeframe.

Even in bear markets, price moves in both directions. Upside moves are usually short-lived, while the downside offers the larger opportunity. As of now, we are only 7 months into the bear market, and historically the bottom has usually formed around the 12th month after the ATH.

That gives us roughly 5 more months where further downside can still develop. The earliest bottom I can see would be somewhere around June / July, which still leaves at least 2–3 more months for this bear market to play out.

The narrative is bullish and everyone is expecting higher, but the structure doesn’t really confirm it just yet. Only a reclaim of 79.4k would open the room for further upside continuation towards the 84k-87k region, but that is still speculation until proven by the PA itself.

$BTC | Monthly

We are currently retesting a major resistance / bearish continuation level on the HTF.

Looking back at the structure from the all-time high down to the current local bottom at 59k, we can see it was almost a straight move down, consisting of 5 bearish monthly candles in a row.

Those candles created an imbalance between 79.4k-83.8k, which has now finally been tapped after a few months of consolidation at the lows.

The structure here does not specifically signal anything bullish. Markets move both ways and seek rebalance when a trend starts running into exhaustion or when liquidity becomes thinner, and that is exactly what we are seeing here.

This move up is the first significant upside pullback throughout this bear market. Yes, we had smaller pullbacks before, but nothing you can clearly point towards at on the monthly chart, which makes them LTF moves relative to this timeframe.

Even in bear markets, price moves in both directions. Upside moves are usually short-lived, while the downside offers the larger opportunity. As of now, we are only 7 months into the bear market, and historically the bottom has usually formed around the 12th month after the ATH.

That gives us roughly 5 more months where further downside can still develop. The earliest bottom I can see would be somewhere around June / July, which still leaves at least 2–3 more months for this bear market to play out.

The narrative is bullish and everyone is expecting higher, but the structure doesn’t really confirm it just yet. Only a reclaim of 79.4k would open the room for further upside continuation towards the 84k-87k region, but that is still speculation until proven by the PA itself.
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