Last week, I shared my outlook on continued upside in the U.S. equity market — and structurally, nothing has changed.
Markets are currently pricing in a potential Iran deal as a short-term catalyst. The expected sequence is clear:
→ upside impulse on the “fact”
→ moderate pullback driven by profit-taking after a strong earnings season
→ continuation of the broader uptrend
In my base case, the next 4 months present a strong window for investors to generate solid returns.
But the real driver is not narrative — it's macro liquidity and policy signals.
This week is critical.
🏦 Central Banks
April 29 – FOMC
This will be the last meeting with Jerome Powell as Chair. However, markets do not trade personalities — they trade policy direction.
Focus areas:
🔴 Rate guidance
🔴 Inflation assessment
🔴 Signals on timing (or absence) of rate cuts
Markets are already forward-looking. With Kevin Warsh expected to take a more data-sensitive stance (notably via Trimmed-Mean CPI), inflation interpretation may shift — but policy inertia remains key.
April 28 – BoJ
The Bank of Japan remains a core global liquidity provider.
Markets will watch:
🔴 Tightening signals
🔴 Inflation commentary
🔴 Forward guidance into June
📊 Macro Data (April 30)
Key releases:
• PCE — Fed’s primary inflation metric
• GDP (Q1 2026) — growth trajectory check
• Jobless Claims — early labor cooling signal
Inflation remains the dominant variable. With commodity pressure and geopolitical risks (Hormuz), disinflation is not guaranteed.
📈 Big Tech Earnings (Post-FOMC = volatility trigger)
Microsoft — backbone of AI narrative
Alphabet — ad sensitivity + AI competition
Amazon — high volatility risk
Meta Platforms — cost surprises possible
Apple — demand (China) in focus
These companies represent ~25% of the S&P 500 — their results are market-defining.
Bottom line:
Ignore noise. Track liquidity, inflation, and positioning.
The setup remains constructive.