Geopolitics Drama + Another Trump Scare: Why Bitcoin’s Still Hanging Tough 🥶
The Middle East situation is basically on pause — US-Iran peace talks fell through again last week, and the ceasefire is just dragging on without much progress. Iran’s foreign minister even popped over to Russia to chat with Putin, which added a bit of “oh crap” energy to the markets.
At the same time, all eyes flipped back to America after gunshots at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner caused a full evacuation. Trump was there (as sitting president this time), and it looks like he might’ve been a target — this would be the third big security scare involving him in two years. No one was seriously hurt, but it rattled nerves.
Crypto reacted instantly: Bitcoin and Ethereum jumped at the Asia open (BTC broke above $79k, ETH above $2,400), kind of like what happened after the 2024 assassination attempt. But the gains didn’t stick around once the Iran-Russia news hit. Still, BTC is up over 14% for the month — its fourth straight weekly gain — thanks to strong spot ETF inflows (nine days in a row, about $2.11B) and big corporate buying (like Strategy adding billions in BTC).
Right now, everything feels constructive but cautious. If BTC can push and close above $82k (there’s a CME gap sitting there that markets love to fill), it could spark a proper rally and even a short squeeze. Funding rates are negative, implied vol is chilling, and some big players are buying upside calls for later in 2026. Downside fear seems to be easing a little.
This week is packed: Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google (Wed) and Apple (Thu), plus the FOMC meeting (expected to be boring — rates on hold) and fresh inflation data (PCE). If Wall Street’s risk appetite survives the earnings reports, Bitcoin might actually have a real shot at more upside.
What do you think — bullish enough for you or still too many question marks?
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