The most interesting thing about BTC right now isn't how much it's pumped, but the fact that with a pile of bad news, it just won't drop.
Back in the day, BTC looked like this:
When the US stock market dips, it follows;
When the war hits, it follows;
When liquidity tightens, it follows suit.
Right now, BTC is a bit like a chameleon in the crypto space 🦎
When it wants to act like a tech stock, it follows Nasdaq;
When it wants to be a safe haven asset, it vibes with gold;
When it doesn't want to deal with people, it starts its own independent market trend.
So around the 60k mark this time, I’m leaning towards seeing it as a 'phase low,' but not the ultimate bottom.
The real bear bottom might need to wait until the market peaks again, then we'll see another brutal liquidation.
The script I'm seeing for BTC right now is roughly:
1️⃣ In the short term, don’t rush to see a collapse.
Right now, it can't drop, which makes it easier to pop back up.
Especially since the 76K level has been tested repeatedly without a direct breakdown, indicating that the previous 'copy-paste crash script' is starting to fail.
What the market loves to do is:
Just when you think it's going to drop, it pulls back up first;
Just when you think the bull is back, it slaps you.
2️⃣ Key levels above to watch are 83K-85K.
This range isn't something you throw around casually.
The monthly EMA20, daily retracement levels, and key rebound points from the last drop are all squeezed into this area.
What's more important is that many shorts' stop-losses are probably right here.
In other words, the area around 83K isn't just a pressure point; it's more like a 'short fuel depot.'
If we don't wash these guys out, it's tough for the market to move smoothly downward.
3️⃣ The truly dangerous spots might come after a spike.
If BTC really touches 83K-85K, don't start shouting with just one bullish candle:
'Bull returns quickly, 100K in sight!'
Old trader experience tells me:
The more confident everyone gets, the easier it is to get wrecked.
If this wave goes up first, I'll be more focused on whether there's a chance to retest 57K-60K.
Because the last rebound at the 60K round number was too decisive, there's still a pile of uncleaned liquidity below 59,999.
The market really hates leaving tails.
4️⃣ I'm not pessimistic about the bigger cycle.
On a six-month scale, I think BTC still has a chance to push beyond 100K.
But the path likely won't be that smooth.
It's more like:
First, it pulls up to bait some people in;
Another wave down to wash out the leverage below;
Only then do we have a chance to restart a major trend.
So don't be too extreme right now.
When you see a rise, don't FOMO right away;
When you see a dip, don't shout 'zero' right away.
This position tests not just your technical skills, but your patience.
I'm personally keeping an eye on two signals:
📌 Can we hold with volume at 83K-85K?
📌 If it spikes and then drops, will 57K-60K be swept again?
To sum it up in one line:
Right now, BTC isn't without opportunities to rise; it's just that this current rise feels more like 'washing out shorts' rather than a true bull run starting.
In the short term, watch for the performance around 83K.
Mid-term, keep an eye on the liquidity around 57K.
Looking at the bigger cycle, check if there's a second chance above 100K.
Don't rush to go long, and don't rush to go short either.
This market loves to reward the calm ones.
And by the way, punish the toughest teachers. 😏