Traders reprice Powell's timeline as Fed meeting approaches:
Traders on Kalshi have moderated expectations for an early departure of Jerome Powell from his role at the Federal Reserve, pulling back from elevated probabilities seen late last week.
The shift follows remarks from Thom Tillis, who suggested Powell could remain in position while the Department of Justice pursues what may be a prolonged appeals process tied to a recent judicial ruling.
The recalibration in market sentiment comes just days before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. While monetary policy remains the central focus, leadership uncertainty has become an additional variable influencing trader positioning.
Current Kalshi data indicates participants now assign roughly a 50% probability that Powell exits before June. The likelihood rises to 65% by August and 81% by 2027, reflecting lingering uncertainty but reduced conviction in an imminent change. Overall, traders appear increasingly cautious as legal and political timelines remain fluid.
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