Prediction markets were supposed to reflect collective intelligence.The data tells a different story.Research from London Business School and Yale shows a small group of informed traders drives most of the price discovery while 96.5% of participants are effectively trading against the consensus.
The profitability gap is even sharper:
Only ~3% of users consistently make money.The rest? They’re largely funding the gains of the top performers.
What this challenges:
• The idea that “the crowd” is wise
• The assumption that more participants = better predictions
• The belief that markets are evenly informative
Instead, it points to something else entirely:
Information asymmetry still dominates.A handful of players with better data, faster interpretation, or stronger models shape outcomes while the majority reacts.Prediction markets don’t eliminate edge.They concentrate it.The real question isn’t whether markets are smart it’s who inside them actually is.
#Polymarket #Market_Update
#LearnWithFatima #Binance
