The current BTC market is in a rather 'uncomfortable' state: prices are recovering, money is flowing back in, but the larger trend is still unclear. This is a phase where many could misunderstand and make wrong moves.
So what's really going on?
1. Cash flow: Whales have returned, but not 'all-in'
Cash flow data shows a very notable point:
- Total cash flow in: +1.069 BTC
- Large orders (whales): +1.113 BTC
- Small orders (retail): -140 BTC
👉 This indicates:
- Whales are buying
- Retail investors are still selling off or staying on the sidelines
However, if we look broader:
Liquidity levels to watch (Liquidation Heatmap)
The liquidity heatmap currently shows two extremely important 'concentration zones':
• Above ($79,200 - $80,000): About $840 million in short orders will get liquidated if the price hits this level. This could trigger a surge to new highs.
• Below ($76,500 - $76,800): About $870 million in long orders are waiting to be liquidated if prices drop significantly.
📌 Conclusion: Large cash flow has only returned in the short term, not confirming a sustainable uptrend. The likelihood of liquidating both sides is high
2. 1D timeframe:
On the daily chart:
- Current price ~77k
- EMA20: ~77.8k → prices are still being pressured
- EMA50 & EMA100 are above → structure is quite uncomfortable
Indicators:
- RSI bouncing back to neutral (~50)
- MACD starting to turn positive → there's strength
3. 4H timeframe:
- Prices have reclaimed EMA20 & EMA50
- EMA200 (~74k) is holding well → key support
- Stoch RSI trending up → there's still short-term buying pressure
- MACD slightly turning green
However:
- Volume hasn't exploded yet
- Prices are stalling around 77k
👉 Analysis:
slight bull potential for one more pullback
4. Important price zones
Resistance:
- 78k – 79.5k → previously rejected zone
- 83k → strong resistance (EMA100 on the daily)
Support:
- 75.5k – 76k → near support
- 74k → EMA200 (4H)
- 72-73k → survival zone
5. Scenarios
🟢 Positive scenario:
If BTC strongly breaks the 79.5k zone with volume:
→ Target: 82k – 85k
🔴 Negative scenario
If it can't break above 78–79k:
→ Sideways → then it may dip back to 74k-72k
6. What game is the market playing?
Currently, a scenario may be unfolding:
- Short trap: Whales push prices up to squeeze shorts
- Create liquidity then push down to kill longs
7. Reasonable strategy
From a medium to long-term investment perspective:
- No FOMO in the 77–78k zone
- Buying around:
- 75–76k (safer)
- 72–74k (good zone if a move occurs)
🔥 Conclusion to avoid risks
Large cash flow has returned – but only in the short term
The larger trend is still bullish, targets 83k, 85k as BTCVN4 indicated over a month ago, but before rising, it's likely: sideways → there could be one more test down before deciding.
The current market is not for 'big bets', but for patience and choosing optimal entry points.
Those who rush → are easily trapped.
Those who wait for the right entry → will reap big rewards.
BTCVN4 still believes the market will rise, but with the current data, there's a chance for one more slight dip down to the 73~75k range before climbing to 83~85k.
Therefore, if you're in a position, you should raise your stop-loss by 5~10% to avoid being liquidated before the new trend forms.
The 73~75k zone is a good entry point.
This is a personal opinion, not an investment recommendation.
BTCVN4 wishes you good luck
