Following the last seven FOMC meetings, prices dropped sharply each time. Notably, the setup before the March meeting closely resembles what we’re seeing now: price rose into the event, repeatedly swept highs, and built significant liquidity below.

That March meeting marked a local top, followed by a 13% pullback that erased much of the prior gains. Heading into today’s rate decision, the same conditions are in place plus, price sits just below a major high-timeframe resistance level, reinforcing the bearish case. If history repeats, we may see another local top form around this meeting.