Yesterday marked a historic moment — Jerome Powell chaired what's expected to be his final FOMC press conference before Kevin Warsh takes over in mid-May. The decision? Rates held steady at 3.50%–3.75% for the third straight meeting. No surprise there — markets had already priced in a 100% chance of a pause.
But the real story isn't the rate decision itself. It's the uncertainty about what comes next. With inflation still running above the Fed's 2% target for five consecutive years, and oil prices elevated due to the Iran conflict, rate cuts are nowhere in sight. Wells Fargo officially dropped its 2026 rate cut forecast entirely. On prediction markets, traders are now pricing a 40% chance the Fed makes zero cuts all year.
For crypto, this is a headwind. Tight liquidity keeps risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin is hovering around $77K, stuck in wait-and-see mode. All eyes now shift to Warsh — his tone at the June FOMC meeting could be the next major catalyst for the market.