A dramatic event just unfolded in the market: the TON/USDT pair shot up to $2.586 in a swift impulse, hitting a new local high. But the bulls' joy was short-lived as the price quickly plummeted to $2.386.
Let's break down what's happening using the technical indicators from your screenshots.
🔍 What do we see on the charts right now?
Local 'high' and retest: The TON price hit resistance near $2.58 and received a sharp pullback. This is a classic retest of a resistance level, after which cascading stop losses from long traders triggered and active profit-taking began.
Technical overbought: On the 15-minute chart, the RSI(6) and Stoch RSI indicators were in the extreme overbought zone (RSI was near 70, Stoch RSI was almost at zero at the beginning of the pullback). This was a clear signal that the market is overheated and needs a 'time-out'.
Momentum shift on MACD: On the 15-minute chart, the MACD histogram has entered the red zone, and the signal lines have crossed down. This indicates that bears are trying to seize the initiative on lower timeframes.
Correction flag? On the hourly chart, the current structure looks like an attempt to form a bullish flag, but for this to happen, price must hold support in the $2.30 – $2.35 area.
🔮 What's the forecast and the latest news?
Scenario 1 (Cooling and retest): The current correction could dip into the $2.25 – $2.30 zone, where price will meet strong support and relieve overbought conditions on higher timeframes. After that, we might see the next wave of growth.
Scenario 2 (Speculative growth): If price holds the $2.35 level, we could see another bullish impulse, but without relieving overbought conditions, it will be very risky and may lead to an even sharper pullback.
💡 My take:
We saw a very strong bullish impulse that 'burned' shorts and lured impatient long traders at the top. The current correction is a healthy and necessary technical move. I'm not rushing to buy on the bounce and am waiting for support confirmation around $2.25 – $2.30.
Did you manage to lock in profits at $2.58 or are you still holding longs? Share your profits and thoughts in the comments! 👇
#TON #Toncoin #BearishTrap #TechnicalAnalysis
