$BTC #BTC
(SNBNEWSDAILY)
Bitcoin Prices Plummet, Market Pessimistic Satoshi Nakamoto Will Appear**
Market participants on Polymarket are pessimistic that Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto will move BTC from his wallet this year. Only 4% of market participants are optimistic that Satoshi will appear while Bitcoin remains plummeted at a price of US$101,000 after a drastic drop over the past month.
However, previously, predictions on Polymarket regarding Satoshi’s appearance this year surged to 15% on October 14.
This increase was triggered by large bets from several users, including four accounts that placed more than US$62,000.
However, two of them were newly created and only bet on this market, raising speculation that there might be insider knowledge involved.
The market will be declared “Yes” if there is movement from one of the wallets identified as belonging to Satoshi by Arkham Intelligence, which includes about 22,000 addresses based on the early Bitcoin mining pattern known as the _Patoshi Pattern_.
However, some analysts suspect that the bettors are merely speculating on potential mislabeling of wallets by Arkham, not because they actually know Satoshi will move.
Some Polymarket traders describe the bets as extreme speculative actions without strong basis. This phenomenon is also associated with a previous case, when the odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize suddenly soared due to alleged insider activity.
Nevertheless, experts like Robin Hanson argue that the presence of insider information in prediction markets is not a flaw, but rather part of the mechanism that makes market outcomes more accurate.
(SNBNEWSDAILY)
Bitcoin Prices Plummet, Market Pessimistic Satoshi Nakamoto Will Appear**
Market participants on Polymarket are pessimistic that Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto will move BTC from his wallet this year. Only 4% of market participants are optimistic that Satoshi will appear while Bitcoin remains plummeted at a price of US$101,000 after a drastic drop over the past month.
However, previously, predictions on Polymarket regarding Satoshi’s appearance this year surged to 15% on October 14.
This increase was triggered by large bets from several users, including four accounts that placed more than US$62,000.
However, two of them were newly created and only bet on this market, raising speculation that there might be insider knowledge involved.
The market will be declared “Yes” if there is movement from one of the wallets identified as belonging to Satoshi by Arkham Intelligence, which includes about 22,000 addresses based on the early Bitcoin mining pattern known as the _Patoshi Pattern_.
However, some analysts suspect that the bettors are merely speculating on potential mislabeling of wallets by Arkham, not because they actually know Satoshi will move.
Some Polymarket traders describe the bets as extreme speculative actions without strong basis. This phenomenon is also associated with a previous case, when the odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize suddenly soared due to alleged insider activity.
Nevertheless, experts like Robin Hanson argue that the presence of insider information in prediction markets is not a flaw, but rather part of the mechanism that makes market outcomes more accurate.