📊 Bitcoin: Is the bubble cycle "over"?
The phenomenon of financial bubbles has long been a topic of study, beginning with the work of Professor Didier Sornette (2014), who defines a "bubble" as a stage of exponential growth – and of course, it will eventually… burst 💥
According to the Diaman Ratio (DR) model from Diaman Partners:
DR < 0: price decreases
0 ≤ DR < 1: sustainable growth
DR = 1: exponential growth
DR > 1: bubble
Analysis of Bitcoin price data shows:
In the previous 4 cycles, Bitcoin gradually entered a phase of exponential growth (DR > 1).
In the 2024 cycle to date, DR has not exceeded 1, except for the bounce when the US spot ETF was approved.
Price volatility has decreased from over 140% to 50%, meaning lower risk but also "gentler" profits.
🔍 Statistical conclusion:
Bitcoin still experiences "bubbles," but the intensity and duration are gradually decreasing.
Profits & volatility are both lower than before, and the model of "sharp rises – catastrophic falls" is gradually disappearing.
If it reaches 1 million USD, it may take another 15 years — and the 13 million USD mark by 2040 is just a "dream for fun."
BlackRock's ETF (IBIT) with an AUM of 100 billion USD is breaking the traditional cycle, pushing Bitcoin into a more stable growth model.
Not investment advice – if you "hold the peak" of Bitcoin, just remember… at least that peak is still higher than my wallet 🪙😅
#BitcoinCycle #CryptoBubble #MarketAnalysis #DigitalAssets #CryptoResearch