For now, the price of #BTC stays above $76K, despite the negative external environment.

Stock markets: yesterday saw another dip. The S&P 500 closed down 0.67%. The dollar index is rising, exceeding 99.36. Oil is above $110.

Current: S&P 500 futures are in the red, Asian indices are dropping, and U.S. bond yields keep climbing (they're being actively shorted).

Key events:

· Today at 23:20 MSK — NVDA report. The stock market will react tomorrow, cryptocurrencies — already today.

· On Friday — important economic data, strong movements in the stock market are possible.

Middle East: situation unchanged. Trump threatens Iran, Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and has set up a platform to raise funds from tankers (more details in the previous post).

Political backdrop: likely, Trump will start to backtrack. Moreover, a convenient reason has emerged — the US Senate has passed a resolution on the 8th attempt, banning Trump from military action without declaring war. Now he can say, 'I would have torn them apart, but the Democrats wouldn’t let me' — and wrap up the conflict. If he chooses to act, it’ll probably be this weekend. But a more realistic scenario is retreat.

Bitcoin: still showing strength, holding above $76K even amidst falling funds. If markets start to really crash (for example, if the S&P 500 drops to 7200–7000), #BTC might test the next support at $70,500–$70,000.

Today's priority scenario: range $73,000–$75,000 (low) and $77,000–$78,000 (high).

If things go positively (peace with Iran, rising funds), Bitcoin will quickly bounce back above $80K.

In the event of negativity and a pullback to $70K — it will also bounce back, but later.

Will Bitcoin hit $70K? It's uncertain.

Above $80K for sure. From this axiom, the obvious and correct actions are clear right now.