The trading volume of Euro stablecoins has skyrocketed 12 times over the past 15 months, yet the EURI price remains flat—this isn’t market failure, but rather a misalignment in pricing logic. In 2021, the USDC saw its market cap and price soar under regulatory push, as the market viewed it as a speculative leverage; whereas the current explosive growth of Euro stablecoins is interpreted by the market as an expansion of payment infrastructure, not a speculative tool. On-chain data reveals that the quarterly trading volume of Euro stablecoins jumped from €2 billion in Q1 2023 to €25 billion in Q2 2024, while EURI has been range-bound around $105 for over 3 months. This decoupling essentially indicates that the underlying demand (cross-border payments, DeFi settlements) has not been discovered by the price.
1️⃣ On-chain data: trading volume surges but address count doesn't follow
The trading volume of Euro stablecoins increased 12 times, yet the number of active on-chain addresses only grew about 2 times. This means that the size of individual transactions is expanding, rather than retail participation increasing. This contrasts with the path of USDC in 2021—where the growth in address count synchronized with trading volume, driving positive feedback for price and market cap. The current range-bound nature of EURI reflects institutions utilizing Euro stablecoins for high-frequency settlements rather than speculative holding.
2️⃣ Funding rates and positions: zero leverage signal
From the futures perspective, EURI’s perpetual contract funding rate has remained close to 0% for an extended period, with open interest holding steady at a low of $3 million, showing no significant fluctuations. This suggests that market interest in EURI for speculation is extremely low, with funds not betting on directional volatility. In contrast, during the bull market of 2021, USDT/USDC had consistently positive funding rates with surging open interest. The current calmness of EURI precisely indicates its nature as a payment tool rather than a trading pair.
3️⃣ Macro narrative: the compliance premium of Euro stablecoins has yet to be released
After the implementation of the European MiCA regulation, Euro stablecoins have become a scarce asset for compliant pathways. However, the market has yet to price this in—EURI’s premium (relative to the Euro exchange rate) is nearly zero. Compared to the liquidity premium that USDC achieved under a compliant framework in 2021 (which briefly reached $1.05), the current compliance premium of Euro stablecoins is completely unreflected. If the DeFi or cross-border payment scenarios in the Eurozone explode in the future, the pricing anchor for EURI might shift from a payment tool to a reserve asset.
4️⃣ Risk points: liquidity traps and decoupling risks
EURI’s daily trading volume is only $500,000, far below the billions of dollars seen with USDC. In such a low liquidity environment, any large buy or sell could trigger extreme volatility. More dangerously, if the growth in Euro stablecoin trading volume mainly comes from a single application (like Circle's Euro Coin), rather than a multi-scenario demand within the ecosystem, then once that application retracts, EURI could face liquidity exhaustion. Additionally, fluctuations in the Euro to Dollar exchange rate could also erode the pricing stability of the stablecoin.
In summary: EURI’s range-bound movement isn’t a market error, but rather a reflection of the shift in pricing logic from speculation to infrastructure. However, if the underlying demand for Euro stablecoins (like cross-border payments and DeFi settlements) is recognized by mainstream institutions as a value bearer, the current price may underestimate its reserve attributes. The risk lies in the fact that under low liquidity, any narrative switch could be amplified rather than transitioning smoothly.
#EURI #Stablecoin #Crypto
1️⃣ On-chain data: trading volume surges but address count doesn't follow
The trading volume of Euro stablecoins increased 12 times, yet the number of active on-chain addresses only grew about 2 times. This means that the size of individual transactions is expanding, rather than retail participation increasing. This contrasts with the path of USDC in 2021—where the growth in address count synchronized with trading volume, driving positive feedback for price and market cap. The current range-bound nature of EURI reflects institutions utilizing Euro stablecoins for high-frequency settlements rather than speculative holding.
2️⃣ Funding rates and positions: zero leverage signal
From the futures perspective, EURI’s perpetual contract funding rate has remained close to 0% for an extended period, with open interest holding steady at a low of $3 million, showing no significant fluctuations. This suggests that market interest in EURI for speculation is extremely low, with funds not betting on directional volatility. In contrast, during the bull market of 2021, USDT/USDC had consistently positive funding rates with surging open interest. The current calmness of EURI precisely indicates its nature as a payment tool rather than a trading pair.
3️⃣ Macro narrative: the compliance premium of Euro stablecoins has yet to be released
After the implementation of the European MiCA regulation, Euro stablecoins have become a scarce asset for compliant pathways. However, the market has yet to price this in—EURI’s premium (relative to the Euro exchange rate) is nearly zero. Compared to the liquidity premium that USDC achieved under a compliant framework in 2021 (which briefly reached $1.05), the current compliance premium of Euro stablecoins is completely unreflected. If the DeFi or cross-border payment scenarios in the Eurozone explode in the future, the pricing anchor for EURI might shift from a payment tool to a reserve asset.
4️⃣ Risk points: liquidity traps and decoupling risks
EURI’s daily trading volume is only $500,000, far below the billions of dollars seen with USDC. In such a low liquidity environment, any large buy or sell could trigger extreme volatility. More dangerously, if the growth in Euro stablecoin trading volume mainly comes from a single application (like Circle's Euro Coin), rather than a multi-scenario demand within the ecosystem, then once that application retracts, EURI could face liquidity exhaustion. Additionally, fluctuations in the Euro to Dollar exchange rate could also erode the pricing stability of the stablecoin.
In summary: EURI’s range-bound movement isn’t a market error, but rather a reflection of the shift in pricing logic from speculation to infrastructure. However, if the underlying demand for Euro stablecoins (like cross-border payments and DeFi settlements) is recognized by mainstream institutions as a value bearer, the current price may underestimate its reserve attributes. The risk lies in the fact that under low liquidity, any narrative switch could be amplified rather than transitioning smoothly.
#EURI #Stablecoin #Crypto