Today, let's not talk about projects or market trends, but focus on the most critical underlying logic; if newcomers understand this, they can avoid pitfalls for a year.

1. This circle is essentially about three things: narrative, liquidity, and cycles.

Don't be fooled by the many projects boasting every day, and various KOLs bragging; the underlying logic is actually very simple:

1. Narrative determines why everyone buys

AI, RWA, Modular, GameFi, Meme...

Where there is fire, there is money.

Narrative = the story everyone is willing to tell together.

Whether you understand the narrative determines whether you make money or not.

No matter how well you read the K-line, it doesn't help; you are competing against emotions.

Why did Solana rise in 2021? Not because of high TPS, but because the narrative of 'Ethereum gas killer' was so compelling that everyone understood it at a glance and dared to jump in.

2. Liquidity determines who pays the bill

No matter how good the narrative is, if no one rushes in, it cannot move.

Look back at history:

Which bull market isn't because there's a lot of money?

Money in → coin up

Money out → even the king can't save it back

You only need to look at one thing: where the money flows.

On the peak day of the bull market in 2021, the total amount of stablecoins in the market increased by over 2 billion USD in one day.

In March 2025, during that major correction, the total amount of stablecoins in the market decreased by 2.8 billion in one day.

3. The cycle determines when you buy and when you run

Newcomers always chase highs in bull markets and lay flat in bear markets.

What about old players?

In a bear market, sneak in and buy, slowly sell in a bull market, and pick up a bit during corrections.

The crypto industry is not about IQ; it's about whether you can endure the cycle.

Don't think that old players have inside information; they just have looked at on-chain data for a few more years. At the end of a bear market, stablecoin holdings start to accumulate (for example, at the end of 2022, USDT supply climbed from 65 billion to 80 billion), which is a bottom-fishing signal;

At the peak of the bull market, there was a flood of inflows into exchanges (Binance USDT balance skyrocketed), that was the alarm for exiting.

Two, why do you lose money? Because you treat speculation as investment

I have seen too many newcomers:

Yesterday you were asking what on-chain means, today you want to go all in on a meme, and tomorrow you ask me why it went to zero.

In one sentence:

You can't make money from projects you don't understand.

This circle is very realistic:

You know what you're buying; others who don't know what they're buying are getting harvested.

Three, there are only three types of people who can consistently make money

1. Bottom-fishing group: patience in bear markets, low greed in bull markets

The smartest group, but newcomers can hardly achieve that.

2. Narrative group: sensitive to trends, able to foresee the direction in advance

For example, when AI just became popular, when Modular started to rise, and the group that sparked interest.

3. Participation group: on-chain farming, completing tasks, early ecosystem engagement, verbal farming

This type is the most suitable for newcomers to farm, during the peak farming period in the first two years, many were single-coin A7. I also used to farm single-coin A7 without investment; that was truly the era of farming, as whether the project worked or not, you didn't lose your principal.

Brothers, remember one thing:

Most of the profits come from your understanding of the future, not from what you do today.

As your understanding improves, you will naturally be able to understand:

– Which ones are good projects

– Which ones are money games

– Which ones are short-term hot trends

– Which ones are real narratives

– Which ones are just influencers selling products

You naturally won't rush in blindly, and it's not easy to get cut.

Five, what I most want to say is: don't be afraid of not 'understanding'

To be honest, all the old players were once newbies.

I also started by asking questions like 'What is a wallet?'

What you don't understand today, you can understand in three months.

But if you don't start learning, you'll always just be a victim.