Just this morning, there was an actual skirmish in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US military struck southern Iran, and Iran is threatening retaliation. BTC plummeted from $78k to $75.7k in a flash, with $350 million in liquidations across the board, and the fear index dropped to 25 (extreme fear).
Forget about it, that 'bull market illusion' from the weekend is shattered.
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Gold: Crashed $4500, are we picking up the pieces or is this the top of the bull market?
Yesterday, spot gold tanked 1.38%, smashing through $4500.
The reason is simple: the new Fed chair, Waller, just took the helm, and the market is betting on a rate hike in December. All the cash is rushing to grab those US Treasury yields; who’s still holding onto non-yielding gold?
So the question is: is this dip a top, or a buy-the-dip opportunity?
My answer—scoop up buyers on the dip.
Why?
Geopolitical risks (US-Iran tensions) haven't been resolved, and oil prices and inflation could rebound any moment.
Dollar credit and US debt issues are long-term structural problems, they won't just vanish because of a single rate hike expectation.
Institutions still have a positive outlook for the mid to long term, and central banks are still buying the dips.
To put it simply, this adjustment was a technical pullback triggered by policy fears. Once the chips are cleared, it will rise again.
Those willing to buy gold at $4500 and those bottom fishing BTC in the next bull market are the same crowd.
Oil: what’s next?
If the US and Iran clash, oil prices will definitely spike first. But be cautious—if Hormuz gets blocked, we might see a short-term surge, but long-term, it could force countries to accelerate stockpiling and increase production.
Goldman's mid-term outlook is bearish down to $60 (Brent). Right now, oil prices look more like an 'impulsive bounce, trend down'.
Don't chase highs, wait for that real bottom at the end of the year.
To sum it up,
Gold is pulling back to scoop up buyers, while oil is triggering impulse buy signals.
Don't let fear freak you out, and don't get fooled by a dead cat bounce.
Do you think it's a good idea to bottom fish gold at $4500?