By the end of 2025, the probability of BTC closing below 80k is still higher than closing above 100k.

If I had to say in a 'trader's feeling' after viewing 1D:

The likelihood of retesting the 80k area, even dipping around 75k:

→ I'd give it about 60–70% (because markdown + CVD + MACD all support this).

The likelihood of a recovery, re-accumulating, and still being above 100k by the end of the year:

→ I'd lower it to about 20–25% with the current data.

The remaining sideways between 80–100k: 10–15%.