Recently, Binance launched US stock tokens and perpetual contracts, opening up a trading channel for mainland users, sparking heated discussions in the market. Can mainland China replicate the models used to regulate Futu and Tiger Brokers by banning Binance users and putting Zhao Changpeng on the wanted list? Is Binance's move bullish or bearish? This article delves deep into regulatory logic, feasibility, and market impact.

1. Regulatory Logic: Binance and Futu Tiger are essentially both engaging in 'illegal cross-border finance.'

In May 2026, eight departments jointly regulated Futu and Tiger Brokers, with the core qualification being the absence of an onshore license and illegal cross-border operations. They attracted clients through onshore marketing and provided US stock account trading, which violated the Securities Law and foreign exchange management regulations.

Binance's situation is even more sensitive. In September 2021, the central bank and ten other departments explicitly stated that virtual currency trading is illegal financial activity, and foreign platforms are strictly prohibited from providing services to domestic users. Binance appears to have exited China but continues to operate through VPNs, OTC trades, and domestic agents, with Chinese users accounting for more than half of its total users. The launch of U.S. stock contracts adds a layer of 'virtual currency + illegal cross-border trading', touching on capital controls and financial security red lines, making regulatory intervention logic completely valid.

2. Feasibility: High probability of expelling users, but it’s challenging to apprehend Zhao Changpeng.

1. User exit from the mainland: High likelihood of implementation, reference the Futu and Tiger Brokers situation.

Mainland China has consistently enforced strict regulations on virtual currencies; in February 2026, eight departments reiterated the ban on foreign platforms providing virtual currency services domestically. Binance's launch of U.S. stock trading effectively amplifies its violation target, and regulators are likely to replicate the 'curb increment, resolve the existing' approach:

- Short-term: Blocking access channels within the country, banning new user registrations;

- Mid-term: Restricting existing users from transferring funds in, only allowing selling and withdrawals;

- Long-term: Completely severing domestic network connections, expelling all mainland users.

This model was validated during the crackdown on Futu and Tiger Brokers, with no significant barriers on the technical and policy levels, yielding a probability of over 80%.

2. Apprehending Zhao Changpeng: Practically very difficult, more symbolic than substantial.

Zhao Changpeng has long since given up his Chinese citizenship and holds multiple passports, residing abroad permanently. Binance’s servers and core team are all overseas, with no physical entities in China. Despite his actions being suspected of illegal operations and money laundering, cross-border apprehension requires international judicial cooperation, and Zhao has already negotiated with the U.S., paying a $4.3 billion fine for compliance space, with no willingness from the U.S. to cooperate. Therefore, the chances of apprehending Zhao Changpeng are less than 30%, mostly regulatory posturing.

3. Market impact: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish, regulatory risk is the biggest hidden danger.

1. Short-term bullish: Increase in users and trading volume, opening up growth space.

Launching U.S. stock contracts directly connects the crypto market with traditional finance, attracting two types of capital: first, the mainland users looking to trade U.S. stocks at low costs, and second, crypto investors seeking diversified asset allocation. In the short term, Binance's trading volume and the market cap of its platform token BNB are expected to surge impulsively, further solidifying market share, with clear short-term bullish signals.

2. Long-term bearish: Global regulatory crackdown, skyrocketing compliance costs.

- On the mainland front: High-pressure regulation leads to user loss and capital outflow, losing the core market;

- On the U.S. front: The SEC is closely monitoring the tokenization of U.S. stocks, deeming them unregistered securities, and may restart lawsuits;

- Compliance costs: A massive investment is needed to tackle global regulations, squeezing profit margins.

From a long-term perspective, the bearish factors far outweigh the bullish ones, and Binance will continue to face the 'global regulatory blockade' dilemma.

Conclusion

Binance’s launch of U.S. stocks is essentially an aggressive expansion in a regulatory gray area. Replicating the Futu and Tiger Brokers model on the mainland and expelling Binance users is highly likely, while apprehending Zhao Changpeng is constrained by cross-border judicial realities. The short-term growth in users and trading volume cannot mask the long-term compliance crisis. For investors, participating in Binance's U.S. stock trading requires caution regarding policy risks; for Binance, this expansion feels more like 'drinking poison to quench thirst', with the sword of global regulation hanging overhead.