Technical analysis:
- 1D Chart: The trend is still a strong downtrend, big red candles, a significant drop, breaking through key support at 68K6, and selling volume is extremely high. No LONG positions, don't try to catch the falling knife here, even though RSI is in the oversold zone, that’s not enough to justify entering a LONG position.
- 4H Chart: The downtrend remains the main trend, momentum is still saying don't be foolish and try to catch the bottom here, it's still dropping. Price is sitting below all EMA lines.
- 1H timeframe: Still bearish, no signs of accumulation at all. No LONG entry found yet.
All three timeframes indicate a strong bearish trend.
Analyzing cash flow data:
- Stablecoins are still increasing and have surpassed the trendline, breaking out strongly, the data is very unfavorable for crypto.
- BTC market cap percentage: the dominant trend is still bearish, right now money is flowing out of BTC more than altcoins.
- Market capitalization is showing strong bearish data, cash flow is in a strong defensive state.
- ETH/BTC spiked strong yesterday but has dropped back today, altcoins are still not mentioned.
In summary: Defensive money, if you have a short position, hold confidently, if you don't have a position, stay out, don't try to go LONG, in Spot you might risk 10 - 20% of your account.
Market sentiment data:
- Yesterday the market was heavily swept, and the crowd is starting to feel quite scared, so bottom fishing at this point has been reduced. It might also be that all the money has been swept away.
- MM successfully swept the LONG team, the distribution phase is over and we're in a breakdown state.
- Heatmap: Below is 65K6 and above is 68K5.
- The market is quite panicked right now.
To sum it up, what's the scenario here: there's only one scenario, which is to wait for a retracement and then short, don't chase shorts, if you miss the entry then too bad. No LONGs to catch the falling knife. If you have a short position, just adjust the entry and stop-loss and hold on. If you have a LONG position, you shouldn't. That's wrong. There's no scenario number 2.