Polymarket is now flashing a sharp warning: there is nearly a 50% probability that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could fall below $50K by year-end. The concern is already visible in price action.
Bitcoin recently slipped to $66.43K, dropping over 6% in just 24 hours and nearly 14% in the past month. At the same time, the S&P 500 (SP500) gained about +5.26%, showing a clear divergence between equities and crypto risk appetite.
At the start of May, the crypto asset was trading near ~$77K and even spiked above ~$81K, but the rally failed to hold. Since mid-May, the structure has turned bearish with consistent lower highs and lower lows—a classic sign that sellers are dominating.
Momentum indicators are fully aligned with the downtrend. MACD remains deeply negative with widening separation, showing strong downward momentum. RSI has fallen near 22, entering oversold territory—meaning short-term bounce risk exists, but the trend is still weak.
Volume surged during the decline, confirming that the move was backed by aggressive selling rather than a lack of buyers. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin liquidations over the past 24 hours reached 799.82M, highlighting the scale of forced position closures and panic across the market.
Now the market is trapped between two narratives: an oversold bounce or continuation toward the feared $50K liquidity zone.
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