We are officially in the phase of the crypto cycle where
everyone thinks everyone else is an idiot.
Half the timeline swears BTC is headed straight to $150K+…
The other half is yelling $40K BTC by next year.
So who’s actually right?
I went through everything — price structure, macro, on-chain, liquidity.
Here’s the truth about where we are and what’s coming next:
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1/ Let’s be honest… $126K looks A LOT like the real top.
The way this drop unfolded is exactly how a cycle peak behaves.
BTC tapped mid-$120Ks and instantly lost momentum
No blow-off candle
No hysteria
No late-cycle retail mania
A trillion dollars evaporated in weeks
ETH and mid-caps rolled over in perfect synchronization
If this wasn’t a top, it was the best imitation I’ve ever seen.
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2/ What actually happened?
Demand disappeared. Completely.
Stablecoin printing slowed
ETF inflows stalled
Derivatives traders vanished
Funding dried up
Everyone is staring at the December Fed decision thinking:
“I’ll wait.”
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3/ Liquidity right now = thin ice.
One medium order can move the entire chart.
Books are empty
Whales can nuke candles with a single swipe
Market depth is pathetic
This is what a fragile market looks like.
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4/ Derivatives confirm the same story.
Volatility spiked
Options skew flipped defensive
Traders hedging instead of longing
Open interest dropped even during bounces
No leverage → no momentum.
Period.
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5/ On-chain shows hesitation, not fear.
CDD up slightly
Long-term holders aren’t moving
aSOPR ~ 1 (neither profit-taking nor panic selling)
Mid-term holders are the ones selling
This is indecision, not capitulation.
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6/ Institutions? Completely passive.
BTC ETFs saw heavy outflows
ETH ETFs too
OTC desks: dead silence
Some flows went into new products, but major allocators are not deploying.
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7/ Macro should help… but timing sucks.
Global easing is starting
Markets expect a December rate cut
BUT:
Strong jobs data
Sticky inflation
Fed messaging = “slow down, cowboy”
Macro tailwinds exist — just not yet.
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8/ This is NOT panic selling.
It’s controlled bleeding.
No massive liquidations
No cascade
No stampede exits
Just slow, constant distribution in a weak market —
which is often more damaging, because it erodes confidence without giving a clear bottom.
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9/ Big picture? Bullish narrative survives.
Near term?
We’re in a fragile, directionless market.
Funding weak
Exchange balances rising
Sentiment deep in fear
Buyers are frozen, waiting for someone else to act
Until a catalyst arrives, expect:
Chop. Drift. And a retest of lower levels — likely around $72K.
That’s my call.
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When this bull actually ends —
I will call the exit publicly.
No gatekeeping.
No secrets.
No “private top signals.”
If you’re following, you won’t miss it.
And if you want to know why I believe a recession hits in 2025, read yesterday’s post — it passed 1M views for a reason.
My header says it all.
