SpaceX is going public, hitting Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The numbers are staggering: priced at $135 per share, issuing 555.6 million shares, with a maximum fundraising of $75 billion—it's the largest IPO in history, more than double the previous record; at this price, the company's valuation sits at $1.77 trillion, making it the seventh largest company in the U.S., even bigger than Berkshire and Musk's own Tesla.
Let's break it down. It expects revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. The main driver of that $1.77 trillion valuation is Starlink—this part is solid, bringing in $11.4 billion in revenue and $7.2 billion in operating EBITDA. In other words, you're paying nearly 95 times the sales multiple for a company that's still losing money, betting on Starlink's cash flow, along with the Mars narrative and Musk premium.
So, can we expect some FOMO? The key isn't the rockets, it's the "passive buy pressure." With this scale, once it goes live, it gets added to major indices, forcing global index funds to buy in according to their weight—this is the real force keeping the opening price stable, largely disconnected from fundamentals. Retail traders are thinking, "since the index has to buy, I'll jump in first"; but one must consider: with the S&P CAPE above 40 and the top ten stocks making up 40%, chasing this historically expensive, highly publicized new stock is like buying the priciest story at the priciest time. Passive buying may support the opening buzz, but it can't sustain the long-term valuation of a losing company—$1.77 trillion is pricing in all the good news for the next decade. #MarketDreamRatio #ChokingOnDreams #SpaceX
Let's break it down. It expects revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. The main driver of that $1.77 trillion valuation is Starlink—this part is solid, bringing in $11.4 billion in revenue and $7.2 billion in operating EBITDA. In other words, you're paying nearly 95 times the sales multiple for a company that's still losing money, betting on Starlink's cash flow, along with the Mars narrative and Musk premium.
So, can we expect some FOMO? The key isn't the rockets, it's the "passive buy pressure." With this scale, once it goes live, it gets added to major indices, forcing global index funds to buy in according to their weight—this is the real force keeping the opening price stable, largely disconnected from fundamentals. Retail traders are thinking, "since the index has to buy, I'll jump in first"; but one must consider: with the S&P CAPE above 40 and the top ten stocks making up 40%, chasing this historically expensive, highly publicized new stock is like buying the priciest story at the priciest time. Passive buying may support the opening buzz, but it can't sustain the long-term valuation of a losing company—$1.77 trillion is pricing in all the good news for the next decade. #MarketDreamRatio #ChokingOnDreams #SpaceX