💣 The Biggest Misjudgment in the Market | June 5, 2026
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【Common Consensus】
Most retail traders believe that the "real AltSeason" for the second half of 2026 hasn't arrived yet. Everyone's waiting for that familiar script — BTC ranging, ETH leading the charge, altcoins skyrocketing 50x, and everyone making money with their eyes closed. The community consensus is: this round is just delayed, it won't be absent.
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【What I See】
But in reality, the structural market trend from Q1-Q3 of 2025 was the only "AltSeason" of this cycle. It didn't create the same kind of euphoric frenzy as in 2017 and 2021 because the funding structure has changed — institutional capital entered through ETFs, and on-chain liquidity is increasingly being absorbed by new tracks like AI Agents and DePIN, rather than being evenly distributed among all altcoins.
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【Data Speaks】
• From January to September 2025, the average gain in the AI/Crypto track was 420%, while the average gain in non-AI tracks was only 68% (source: CoinGecko 2025 Annual Report)
• BTC's market cap dominance rose from 38% at the end of 2022 to over 58% by June 2026, indicating that funds are continuously concentrating towards the top, rather than spilling over into altcoins.
• In Q1 2026, 73% of newly issued tokens dropped below their listing price immediately, a record high, indicating that the market can no longer support valuation bubbles for new projects.
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【Historical Comparison】
The last time we saw a similar situation of "funds concentrating in a few tracks rather than widespread gains" was just before the DeFi Summer in 2019. During that time, BTC's dominance rose from 39% to 71%, with many altcoins going to zero. Only DeFi protocols with real products and users survived, while the rest never saw a "catch-up".
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【My Viewpoint】
I believe the biggest misjudgment of this cycle is trying to apply past scripts to the present. The AltSeason of 2025 has already come and gone in the form of AI + Crypto, and now with BTC's dominance continuing to rise, it indicates that institutional funds are rapidly exiting the altcoin market and returning to mainstream assets. If you're still waiting for an altcoin-wide "bull market," you might just be facing more zeroes. The real opportunity isn't just waiting for an AltSeason, but rather identifying the next cycle's mainstream narratives, like AI Agents, that can attract real capital, and positioning yourself ahead of the curve.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【Common Consensus】
Most retail traders believe that the "real AltSeason" for the second half of 2026 hasn't arrived yet. Everyone's waiting for that familiar script — BTC ranging, ETH leading the charge, altcoins skyrocketing 50x, and everyone making money with their eyes closed. The community consensus is: this round is just delayed, it won't be absent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【What I See】
But in reality, the structural market trend from Q1-Q3 of 2025 was the only "AltSeason" of this cycle. It didn't create the same kind of euphoric frenzy as in 2017 and 2021 because the funding structure has changed — institutional capital entered through ETFs, and on-chain liquidity is increasingly being absorbed by new tracks like AI Agents and DePIN, rather than being evenly distributed among all altcoins.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【Data Speaks】
• From January to September 2025, the average gain in the AI/Crypto track was 420%, while the average gain in non-AI tracks was only 68% (source: CoinGecko 2025 Annual Report)
• BTC's market cap dominance rose from 38% at the end of 2022 to over 58% by June 2026, indicating that funds are continuously concentrating towards the top, rather than spilling over into altcoins.
• In Q1 2026, 73% of newly issued tokens dropped below their listing price immediately, a record high, indicating that the market can no longer support valuation bubbles for new projects.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【Historical Comparison】
The last time we saw a similar situation of "funds concentrating in a few tracks rather than widespread gains" was just before the DeFi Summer in 2019. During that time, BTC's dominance rose from 39% to 71%, with many altcoins going to zero. Only DeFi protocols with real products and users survived, while the rest never saw a "catch-up".
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【My Viewpoint】
I believe the biggest misjudgment of this cycle is trying to apply past scripts to the present. The AltSeason of 2025 has already come and gone in the form of AI + Crypto, and now with BTC's dominance continuing to rise, it indicates that institutional funds are rapidly exiting the altcoin market and returning to mainstream assets. If you're still waiting for an altcoin-wide "bull market," you might just be facing more zeroes. The real opportunity isn't just waiting for an AltSeason, but rather identifying the next cycle's mainstream narratives, like AI Agents, that can attract real capital, and positioning yourself ahead of the curve.