The strong non-farm numbers don’t necessarily mean the Fed will hike rates this year. Overall, the May labor market data indicates that employment is still outperforming market expectations, and the Fed currently lacks the data to support a rate cut. However, the structure still shows no significant acceleration risks in the labor market, and there won’t be a spiral that boosts inflation, so there’s no need to overly price in the risk of a rate hike this year. Despite the strong non-farm data since March, in the short term, it has only raised the bar for the Fed to cut rates, without adding pressure for a rate hike. Overall, market concerns about rate hikes have become the main theme in trading.
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