🔴 Bearish — The market remains under structural pressure: all three assets are below SMA20 with volumes of 0.21–0.33x the average, outflows from spot-ETFs reached $1.88 billion over the week, and liquidations of $1.6 billion exposed critical leverage strain — the current drift looks like a weak bounce in a bearish correction, not a reversal; meanwhile, sentiment has worsened compared to the previous neutral digest, although FNG remained at the same 12/100.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💰 Current Prices:
$BTC
😱 Fear & Greed: 12/100 — Extreme Fear
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 Development Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish (probability: low):
A short squeeze from current levels: the trigger is BTC closing above SMA20 $61,844 on volume above 0.6x the average, which initiates a cascade of short closures in SOL (-0.044% funding) and ETH (-0.0035%). Target zone — resistance at $64,495 for BTC, $1,794 for ETH, $70.64 for SOL. The level of $64,764 (resistance from the previous digest) has not been reached — if the bullish scenario plays out, it remains the next significant barrier.
🎯 BTC Target: $64,495
🔴 Bearish (probability: high):
Continuation of the correction upon breaking supports on low volume: without volume confirmation, the bounce fades, BTC tests $59,130 (level held from the previous digest, but pressure is increasing), ETH heads to $1,505, SOL — to $60.13. Breaking $59,130 for BTC opens the path to $55,000. Outflows from ETF and US labor market data remain the dominant fundamental factor.
🎯 BTC Target: $59,130
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 Key Levels:
• ₿ BTC: support at $59,130 | resistance at $64,495
• Ξ ETH: support at $1,505 | resistance at $1,636
• ◎ SOL: support at $60.13 | resistance at $70.64
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 Trader's Advice:
The support level for BTC at $59,130 (from the previous digest) is currently holding, however, volumes have degraded from 0.79x to 0.33x — confidence in the bounce is even lower than a week ago.
For longing: entry in the zone of $59,300–59,800 for BTC only after confirmed support test with volume above 0.6x the average, stop below $58,500, leverage no higher than x3; for SOL similarly — entry at $60.50–61.00, stop below $59.50, target $66–70.
For shorting: entry upon closing the hourly candlestick below $61,500 for BTC, stop above $62,500 (above SMA20), target $59,130, leverage no higher than x3; for ETH — short upon a pullback to SMA20 at $1,630–1,648 without breaking on volume, stop at $1,670, target $1,505. Given the current liquidity (volumes 3–5 times below normal), position size should be reduced to 30–40% of the standard: a thin order book amplifies slippage and movement amplitude in both directions.