📊 In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's recent market
The recent Bitcoin market can be summarized with three keywords:
🔹 Consolidation and pullback
🔹 Outflow pressure is easing
🔹 Structural support remains intact
—— 1. Price action and key support levels
Since the market peaked last October, Bitcoin has dropped about 50%. Compared to previous bear markets, this round's retracement has notably narrowed:
The maximum drop in the 2014 bear market was about 85%
The 2019 bear market was about 84%
The last bear market was about 77%
This round has only seen about 50% so far
Price is currently oscillating around $60,000, a level that corresponds to multiple market structure indicators:
📌 On-chain cost levels (long-term reference)
Realized price median: ≈ $64,100
200-week moving average: ≈ $61,700
Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of its trading time below this level, highlighting the importance of this range.
📌 Further support range (low probability of touching).
$54,000: realized price.
$46,200: CVDD bottom anchor point
$40,000: equilibrium price
$35,000: extreme panic zone
In summary, the $46,000–$54,000 range is more likely to form a deep adjustment bottom, while the $35,000–$40,000 zone represents an extreme risk area.
—— II. Fund flow and selling pressure changes.
Recently, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shown important signals:
🔸 BTC spot ETF ends 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows.
🔸 ETH spot ETF also ends 17 days of consecutive net outflows, turning to slight net inflows.
This indicates:
✔ Selling pressure begins to ease.
✔ Short-term panic may be nearing its end.
✔ Market fund flows are gradually stabilizing.
The halt of fund outflows itself is a structural turning point, providing support for short-term price stabilization.
—— III. On-chain loss data explains market depth.
Since the market peak, Bitcoin holders have realized cumulative losses of about $174 billion. Although this is a massive figure, it's still below the previous bear market peak of around $211 billion.
This means:
📌 The market has yet to experience the deepest fund clearing.
📌 There is still room for further consolidation below.
📌 The current price range feels more like a mid-bear grind rather than an extreme low.
—— IV. Short-term strategies and investor behavior.
In an environment of oscillation and divergence, market characteristics include:
🔹 Short-term buying is concentrated around $60,000.
🔹 Selling pressure is easing as fund outflows diminish.
🔹 Large institutional funds tend to remain on the sidelines.
In terms of short-term trading strategies, the probability of oscillation around the $60,000–$65,000 range is quite high.
—— V. Summary of Opinions
📌 Bitcoin has a high probability of stabilizing in the key support area.
📌 The bear market structure has not yet ended, but the market has entered a balancing phase.
📌 Next focus indicators:
Price effectively stabilizes above $65,000.
The trend of fund inflows continues.
If these two conditions are met, the price may challenge:
First recovery target: $75,000–$79,000
Medium-term resistance level: around $93,000.
Overall, short-term market oscillation is the norm; focusing on structural support and fund flows is more important than simply chasing highs and lows.
📌 For long-term holders, Bitcoin's value still lies in holding and a solid layout, rather than short-term market fluctuations.
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