Pigeon 0xENAS is done with crypto. He's switched to trading US stocks now.
He dropped a message in the Telegram channel 'Birds of a Feather'. Basically, he feels that Bitcoin's price action isn't aligning with his trading style, and MSTR and Saylor's moves signal that the whole situation is starting to crumble.
He's no longer trying to catch falling knives, no longer knife-catching.
I dug through the data to see why he's pulling back at this point.
BTC was at $126,000 last October, hitting a low of $59,101 in early June. That's a 53.1% drop.
What’s the vibe? If you bought 1 BTC at last year's peak, you’re now missing out on a Porsche 718 Cayman from your wallet.
But this isn't just about price.
MSTR sold 32 BTC on June 1. That's 32, which is 0.0038% of their total holding of 843,706, just a drop in the bucket.
However, this is the first time since 2022.
Saylor has been shouting 'never sell' for five years. Five years!
Now he’s taking down that sign himself.
Why sell? MSTR is burdened with $1.5 billion in preferred stock annual interest. The mNAV has already dropped to 1.2 times, reaching the breakeven level. At this point, issuing new shares to raise funds isn't worth it; they can only move $BTC. It's not that they want to sell; it's the balance sheet that's forcing them.
But the market doesn't care why; it cares about what has been done.
If a major bull holding 840,000 BTC starts to let go, how do you convince others to add to their positions?
What's even crazier is the cash flow in ETFs. The BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow for 13 consecutive trading days. BlackRock's IBIT had a day where it ran off $440 million. Since mid-May, nearly $4 billion has flowed out in total.
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Where's the money going?
US stocks. The S&P 500 touched 7,599.96 in early June, a new all-time high. The Nasdaq hit 27,086.81, also a new high. The Philadelphia semiconductor index has risen 80.3% year-to-date.
Saylor explained it all in four words: 'capital rotation.' He said roughly $400 billion has flowed into AI infrastructure over the past six months. Money hasn't disappeared; it just changed hands.
While everyone is focused on US stocks, the cash has indeed gone to US stocks. Looking at it alongside 0xENAS's actions, it's spot on.
Of course, US stocks just took a hit themselves.
On June 5, US employment data was released: an increase of 172,000 jobs. The expectation was around 120,000. Once the data came out, federal funds futures reversed on the spot, shifting from betting on a 25bp rate cut to a 25bp rate hike, with the probability jumping to 61%.
The Nasdaq dropped 1,121 points that day, 4.18%. The worst year-to-date performance. VIX spiked 40%. The S&P's record of nine consecutive weeks of gains, the longest since 1995, was also broken.
But this is just a normal pullback in US stocks. It hasn't changed the flow of money; what's meant for AI is still going to AI.
Overall, crypto is bleeding while US stock AI is sucking it dry. It's not that there's a major issue with the $BTC network. The problem is, in the short term, crypto can't come up with a narrative to compete with AI.
Cash doesn't wait for anyone, so it's crucial to set up your target position early during a pullback.
We've also compiled a list of some well-known overseas US stock bloggers to share in the comments section to help everyone quickly understand relevant info and avoid getting stuck in a Chinese information bubble.
