In the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has intervened strongly in the Middle East situation, temporarily cooling the escalating geopolitical risks; meanwhile, leading companies in the AI sector are accelerating their move toward the capital markets, with expectations for super IPOs continuing to heat up.
Against this backdrop, the crypto market has wrapped up its continuous correction and is seeing a technical rebound.
Even though ETF funds are still flowing out and leverage is being cleared, the market has begun to show signs of bottoming out.
The core narrative of global capital is becoming increasingly clear:
· On one side, we have the repricing of geopolitical risks;
· On the other side, there’s a wave of capitalization in AI tech assets.
Two main lines are jointly determining future capital flows.
🧱 Geopolitical Chessboard: 'Moment of Breakout' under high-pressure standoff.
① The Middle East situation is showing signs of cooling.
The Middle East situation, which has been heating up for the past few weeks, has reached a turning point.
Trump publicly called for Iran and Israel to immediately stop military escalation and warned both sides to avoid disrupting ongoing negotiations.
Subsequently, both sides signaled a reduction in conflict intensity, and direct military actions were noticeably reduced.
Although the ceasefire basis remains fragile, and the situation still has the potential for reversals, the market's most concerning risk of total loss of control has temporarily eased.
② US military action: Hard power is the underlying support for peace expectations.
On June 8, the US military conducted a precision strike on a tanker suspected of violating the maritime blockade in the Gulf of Oman, rendering it unable to navigate.
The event has released a clear signal:
The actual control and enforcement of the US over the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters far exceed previous market expectations.
Diplomatic negotiations are responsible for creating a window for peace;
Military deterrence is responsible for ensuring that the window does not close quickly.
🧘 Mindfulness Commentary:
The market often only sees Trump's rhetoric but easily overlooks the underlying power structure.
Geopolitics has never been an emotional game but a game of strength.
The so-called peace expectations are essentially built on a balance of power.
When the market starts believing that risks can be controlled, capital will begin to seek out yield opportunities again.
💹 Capital Mapping: The dual resonance of geopolitical cooling and AI capitalization.
In the past 24 hours, the performance of the global capital market has unfolded around two main lines: declining risk premiums + AI valuation expansion.
📈 The Nasdaq is up, with tech stocks continuing to lead the charge.
📈 The S&P remains strong.
📉 The Dow is relatively weak.
🛢️ Oil surged and then fell back.
🥇 Gold experiences a slight correction.
💵 The dollar index maintains strength.
💴 The yen continues to be under pressure.
Funds are beginning to tilt from risk-off modes back towards growth assets.
① AI giants are ushering in a new era of capitalization.
The most关注消息 in the market comes from the AI sector. OpenAI has officially begun preparations for an IPO, and the market expects it to become one of the most iconic IPOs of the AI era.
Meanwhile—
· Anthropic is advancing its IPO plan;
· xAI continues to expand its financing landscape;
The valuations of leading enterprises in the AI supply chain are continuously being reshaped.
In the past few decades, the internet has shaped the golden age of tech capital;
In the coming years, AI may initiate another larger wave of capitalization.
This is not only a technological revolution but also the beginning of a global liquidity reconfiguration.
🧘 Mindfulness Commentary:
Market sentiment shifts can often happen in the blink of an eye.
Last week, investors were still worried about inflation, interest rates, and war;
This week, the market has already begun discussing the AI super IPO and the logic of tech growth.
Capital is never loyal to emotions; it is only loyal to new narratives.
With local geopolitical risks temporarily cooling, AI has logically become a new gathering point for capital.
💸 Web3 Overview: Chip reshuffling under complex structural periods.
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, presenting a dichotomous pattern of 'institutional buildup, derivative cleansing, and liquidity flowing towards AI.'
BTC: rebounding from lows, stabilizing at 63k, providing short-term relief from panic;
ETH: stronger than BTC, with a more significant rebound; recovering after nearing a two-year low;
① Hyperliquid faces a test of faith.
As the current leader in the on-chain derivatives space, Hyperliquid is facing market skepticism.
Some well-known traders and industry insiders have begun to publicly reduce their holdings in HYPE and challenge its reliance on fee buyback token models.
The market is beginning to reassess: Is it real cash flow supporting valuations, or is it the market's premature overdraft of growth narratives?
② Aster faces unlocking pressure.
Aster faces a large-scale token unlock. Against the backdrop of a weak market recovery, the influx of new circulating chips has further amplified the selling pressure. Funds are becoming increasingly scrutinizing of high FDV projects.
Recommended reading: my earlier article: (Ultimate Analysis of the Global DEX Track: The Chinese-speaking Community May End Up with Nothing)
🧘 Mindfulness Commentary:
The biggest feature of the current crypto market is not unilateral rises or falls.
But rather, it has entered a typical 'complex structural period.'
Geopolitics, Wall Street liquidity, ETF fund flows, the sucking effect of the AI sector, and the unlocking cycles of on-chain projects are all simultaneously impacting the market.
In such a phase: what truly determines returns is often not trading frequency; rather, it's position management and cognitive stability.
The more complex the market, the more valuable patience becomes.
🧘 Conclusion:
On the surface, the market still appears chaotic.
But if you peel back the layers, you'll find that the main lines are actually becoming clearer:
· Geopolitics determines risk premiums;
· AI capitalization determines growth premiums;
The crypto market is seeking a new balance point between the two.
The phased cooling of the Middle East situation has given global risk assets some breathing room;
The wave of AI super IPOs is reshaping the capital narrative for the coming years.
In the context of US dollar assets continuously siphoning global liquidity, what truly matters is not chasing every fluctuation, but understanding where the funds ultimately flow.
Storms never disappear.
But to truly navigate cycles, one must understand who is pricing, who controls the market, and who is absorbing liquidity.
📌 LaoYao（@LaoYao_crypto ）
Using mindfulness as a blade, cut through the truth deep within the crypto power structure.