🔥 Panic Index at 10, the market is betting on an 'impossible' bottom
Brothers, today’s charts are giving me a headache. BTC at 62963, ETH at 1670, SOL at 66, all are in a decline with shrinking volume, none of them can hold. The panic index has shot up to 10, extreme fear, but I think this is actually a good thing — when everyone thinks it’s about to crash, it’s often close to a real rebound. But hold up, you gotta wait for signals to scoop the bottom, it’s not about faith.
First, BTC has strong support around 62500, but the bulls are hesitant to push it up. On-chain data shows that 62500 USD is a recent high-traffic area, also close to miners' cost line. If it breaks here, the next stop is the 60000 psychological level. My view: shorting at this level has low risk-reward ratio, but going long feels risky with stop-loss in play, better to wait for volume to drop below 62000 before considering a left-side entry.
Second, ETH's support at 1600 is tougher than expected, but SOL below 70 USD is in the 'garbage time'. ETH has been grinding around 1670 for three days, with on-chain gas fees dropping to single digits, indicating retail traders are flat. But 1600 is an institutional holding cost area, I think you can place a small long order at 1600 with a stop-loss at 1550. For SOL at 66 USD, both volume and interest are diminishing, I recommend cashing out and swapping for BTC or ETH, don’t go against the trend.
Third, a panic index of 10 has only occurred during the 2022 bear market and the 312 crash in history. Every time the panic index drops below 15, the rebound probability in the next 30 days exceeds 70%. However, this time is different as the Fed is still tapering, causing liquidity to dry up. My judgment: there might be another drop in the short term, but on a mid-term (1-3 months) view, this is definitely a golden pit, you can choose not to buy, but don’t cut losses at this point.
What do you think? Should we hold positions and wait for a rebound, or is it time to recognize the output situation? Let’s chat in the comments.
Brothers, today’s charts are giving me a headache. BTC at 62963, ETH at 1670, SOL at 66, all are in a decline with shrinking volume, none of them can hold. The panic index has shot up to 10, extreme fear, but I think this is actually a good thing — when everyone thinks it’s about to crash, it’s often close to a real rebound. But hold up, you gotta wait for signals to scoop the bottom, it’s not about faith.
First, BTC has strong support around 62500, but the bulls are hesitant to push it up. On-chain data shows that 62500 USD is a recent high-traffic area, also close to miners' cost line. If it breaks here, the next stop is the 60000 psychological level. My view: shorting at this level has low risk-reward ratio, but going long feels risky with stop-loss in play, better to wait for volume to drop below 62000 before considering a left-side entry.
Second, ETH's support at 1600 is tougher than expected, but SOL below 70 USD is in the 'garbage time'. ETH has been grinding around 1670 for three days, with on-chain gas fees dropping to single digits, indicating retail traders are flat. But 1600 is an institutional holding cost area, I think you can place a small long order at 1600 with a stop-loss at 1550. For SOL at 66 USD, both volume and interest are diminishing, I recommend cashing out and swapping for BTC or ETH, don’t go against the trend.
Third, a panic index of 10 has only occurred during the 2022 bear market and the 312 crash in history. Every time the panic index drops below 15, the rebound probability in the next 30 days exceeds 70%. However, this time is different as the Fed is still tapering, causing liquidity to dry up. My judgment: there might be another drop in the short term, but on a mid-term (1-3 months) view, this is definitely a golden pit, you can choose not to buy, but don’t cut losses at this point.
What do you think? Should we hold positions and wait for a rebound, or is it time to recognize the output situation? Let’s chat in the comments.