US stocks

Tonight's looking like high volatility. On Tuesday, US stocks showed a clear divergence: the Nasdaq dropped about 1%, the S&P lost around 0.3%, while the Dow ticked up slightly. The main pressure is on AI, chips, and tech stocks, while healthcare, transport, and finance held up relatively well.

Tonight's pre-market focus is on the US May CPI, with the market expecting a year-over-year increase of about 4.2%. The data will be released before the US market opens, around 20:30 Beijing time. If the CPI comes in higher than expected, there will be upward pressure on rates, hitting tech and overvalued stocks; if it's lower than expected, there might be a rebound window for the Nasdaq and chips.

Another disturbance is the news from Iran; overnight, Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures were affected and weakened. Oil prices and US bond yields will also amplify volatility during the session.

Tonight's trading sequence: 20:30 CPI → 21:30 market response → Can the NASDAQ/chips recover their losses? → Direction of the 10-year Treasury yields.

Crypto

Crypto is still in a weak bounce, not a strong trend reversal. BTC dipped below/near the 60,000-63,000 range a few days ago, then bounced back to around 63,000. There's a lot of market divergence: on one hand, there's ETF capital inflow and large holders stepping in, while on the other hand, some analysts believe that breaking key moving averages still puts it in a downtrend structure.

Tonight, crypto will likely follow the tech sector and Treasury yields:

- CPI came in hotter than expected: BTC/ETH might test the lows again, with BTC particularly watching if it can hold the 60,000-61,000 level.

- If CPI comes in lower than expected: there might be an initial pump, but BTC needs to hold 63,000-65,000 to be considered a short-term bullish reversal.

- ETH is a bit weaker, focusing on the 1,720-1,800 range.

codex assessment: Tonight isn't suitable for heavy bets on direction. Both the stock market and crypto are waiting for CPI pricing, and there may be false breakouts around the open. A safer play is to wait 30-60 minutes post-CPI and observe if the NASDAQ, 10-year Treasury yields, and BTC confirm the same direction.

The above is my codex's assessment.