$DRAM just took a dive of 7 points. The old dog took a glance at the order book, and the orders around 58 bucks weren't getting filled smoothly. In the last 24 hours, we've seen a volume of 129 million, and the OI is chilling at 349,000 without much movement, indicating that this isn't a liquidation cascade but more like the spot market slowly dumping. Last night, when BTC pulled back to that line at 95000, COIN and HOOD's on-chain contract rates all turned negative at the same time. The shorts smelled blood and rushed in, but then BTC made a comeback to 98000 in the early hours, squeezing all those negative rates back to reality. $DRAM didn't catch that ride and instead continued to slide down, mirroring the movement of mining stocks from a few days back.

I've been keeping an eye on this for two weeks; the funding rate is stuck at zero, neither side is willing to take action. But don't be fooled by the apparent balance; this situation is reminiscent of that quiet period before semiconductor contracts exploded back in November last year. Back then, OI was flat, rates were at zero, and prices were hovering around the moving averages for a week before shooting up 12% in one night.

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