The man who predicted the 2008 financial crisis doesn’t trust the biggest IPO in history.

Steve Eisman, the investor immortalized in The Big Short, is blunt:

TSLA is the weakest link in Elon Musk’s empire.

And a merger between SpaceX and Tesla would be “the last thing in the world” any SpaceX shareholder should want.

His argument isn’t emotional it’s based on numbers.

Tesla’s earnings have declined for four consecutive years.

The EV industry is highly capital-intensive, competition is fierce, and Chinese manufacturers are producing similar vehicles at significantly lower costs.

SpaceX tells a different story, but not necessarily a perfect one.

The company generated $4.7 billion in revenue during Q1 2026.

However, capital expenditures surged from 42% of revenue in 2023 to 215% of revenue in the first quarter of this year.

SpaceX is spending far more on AI than it is generating in returns.

Its AI division alone is reportedly losing $3 for every 1$ it brings in.

The only consistently profitable segment remains Starlink, which delivered 1.19 billion in operating profit.

Eisman’s broader thesis is that Musk wants to build a single empire under the “X” brand, combining SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, and its AI infrastructure into one integrated ecosystem.

Analysts such as Dan Ives estimate the probability of such a merger at 80%.

Prediction market Kalshi places the odds at 57% before April 2027.

But Eisman believes the governance risks are enormous.

Musk controls 85% of the voting power at SpaceX.

Any merger would effectively happen on his terms, regardless of what Tesla or SpaceX shareholders think.

The man who famously bet against Wall Street banks, and won, is now betting that this offering is significantly overvalued.

So the question is:

Is he right again?

Or will Musk once again prove that conventional logic struggles to measure unconventional vision?