4.2% May CPI, 82% December rate hike probability.
Let's break down just how impactful this CPI report is.
The U.S. Labor Department's data released on June 10 shows that the May CPI skyrocketed 4.2% year-over-year, far exceeding the market's expectation of 3.9% and also higher than the previous value of 3.8%. The core CPI year-over-year hit 3.5%, while energy prices, which saw the largest month-over-month increase, surged 5.6%.
This set of data practically slapped the words 'inflation rearing its head again' in bold on the Fed's desk. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed at the December meeting soared to 82%, up from less than 50% just a week ago.
This means that since March 2025, the market has first considered 'rate hikes' instead of 'rate cuts' as the baseline scenario. The idea of rate cuts this year has completely gone to zero.
Theoretically, this is the top bearish signal for risk assets like Bitcoin. But why is the market's panic so fleeting this time?
First off, this is a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario. For a full two weeks before the data release, Bitcoin slid from $66,000 down to around $58,000, with a cumulative drop of over 12%. This downward movement was the market preemptively digesting and pricing in that surprisingly high CPI report.
Secondly, the 'final dip' in interest rate hike expectations might be over. Historically, when the CME FedWatch's hike probability exceeds 80%, it often indicates that market fears about tightening have peaked. Now, the market has fully priced in the worst-case scenario of 'no rate cuts this year, and possibly one hike.'
So, any news that isn’t 'worse' from here on out could be interpreted as good news. The market's focus has shifted from the CPI report to the upcoming FOMC meeting on June 16. If the Fed's statement confirms 'keeping rates unchanged, but leaving the door open for future possibilities,' the market might perceive this as 'the shoe dropping,' sparking a rally.
Lastly, it seems Bitcoin is developing a 'desensitization' mechanism to macro data. Remember, the shock from each CPI data point exceeding expectations—from March CPI (3.8%) to April CPI (3.8%), and then this May's 4.2%—has been diminishing. The market is gradually accepting that a high inflation, high interest rate environment will become a 'new normal.'
Remember that brutal rate hike cycle back in 2022?
Back then, before the Fed officially kicked off the rate hikes, the market was also filled with panic and uncertainty, causing Bitcoin's price to plummet. But once the Fed actually dropped the hammer on the first rate hike, market panic began to fade, and Bitcoin found a temporary bottom mid-year, embarking on months of consolidation.
History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it often feels eerily similar. When the worst expectations are confirmed, uncertainty dissipates, and the market absolutely hates uncertainty.
Thus, for Bitcoin right now, a seemingly mundane outcome—keeping rates unchanged—might actually be the biggest bullish signal.
#比特币跌至5.9万美元后反弹 #美国5月PPI同比升6.5% #美国当周初请失业金22.9万人 $BTC
