In the past 24 hours, the global market has experienced a dramatic geopolitical turning point. The US-Iran situation shifted from the brink of war due to late-night airstrikes to a sudden expectation of lightning talks.
Trump's signature trading-style geopolitical maneuvering has forcibly rewritten the trajectory of the Middle East, directly triggering global inflation expectations and capital flows, resulting in a comprehensive V-shaped recovery across the stock market, energy, precious metals, and crypto markets.
🧱 Geopolitical chess: Using war to pressure, seeking peace through profit.
① Middle East Situation: The White House's full-on game of 'war promotes talks'.
Maximum pressure: The US military launched large-scale multi-target airstrikes on Iran late at night, using 49 missiles to precisely hit key nodes. Trump announced shortly after that Iranian leaders have called for peace and ordered a halt to further bombings.
Business negotiations: Trump stated that 'a historic agreement has been approved at a high level' with the participation of over ten countries including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, planning to be signed in Europe. If signatures cannot be achieved within two days, tough actions can still be resumed, and U.S. military control over key oil field facilities like Kharg Island can be executed at any time.
Tehran responds: The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that 'no final conclusion has been reached', warning against impulsivity, or they may fall into a 'bottomless pit'.
🧘 Annotations on mental philosophy:
The global power struggle has shifted away from traditional ideological confrontations, evolving into a direct battle over resources, capital, and authority.
Trump has directly transformed military deterrence into a bargaining chip, achieving a seamless connection between 'strategic intent' and 'on-the-ground execution'. This is the core logic of new era geopolitical trading, and the underlying tone of capital markets.
💹 Capital Reflection: Risk appetite fully returns
The panic from the Middle East war has quickly receded, oil prices have plummeted, and anxiety over second-round inflation has significantly dissipated. The late-night geopolitical inflection point hedged against unexpected PPI data, leading to a collective violent rebound in global risk assets.
📈 U.S. stocks: Violent rebound, recording the largest single-day increase in two months, NASDAQ +2.54%, S&P +1.86%, Dow +1.75%;
🛢️ Crude Oil: WTI reported at $86, Brent at $88, plummeting over 4%
🥇 Gold: Peak liquidation, facing a cliff-like sell-off;
💵 Forex: The dollar rose and then fell back, the euro strengthened, and the yen came under pressure;
🧘 Annotations on mental philosophy:
The core logic of the market has completed a phase switch: from 'war-induced panic and risk-off sentiment' to the macro reality of persistent high inflation and high interest rates, completely reconstructing the rhythm of asset rotation.
💸 Web3 Overview: From extreme panic to liquidity liberation
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has shifted from extreme panic to liquidity liberation, showcasing a typical V-shaped revenge rebound as the U.S.-Iran situation reversed.
BTC: Strong rebound, back above 63K, with increased trading volume and institutional buying returning.
ETH: Following the market rebound, it has broken through the 1,650 resistance level, still oscillating at low levels compared to the beginning of the month.
① Japan's crypto securitization reform
Japan has elevated cryptocurrency to the same legal status as stocks, with the first batch of 105 exchange-traded currencies considered financial products, subject to information disclosure and intermediary regulation rules.
Traditional securities can now offer crypto trading, banks can participate in custody, pushing institutional funds into the market, solidifying Japan's position in the Asian digital finance center, competing with Hong Kong and Singapore.
② The capital spillover effect of the SpaceX IPO
Valued at $1.77 trillion, SpaceX has officially landed on NASDAQ, with approximately 18,712 Bitcoins in its holdings needing public disclosure of fluctuations, increasing the mainstream exposure of crypto assets.
Platforms like Bybit are launching tokenized SpaceX stocks, with primary market tech funds possibly flowing back into the crypto lane, providing incremental momentum for subsequent market trends.
🧘 Annotations on mental philosophy:
The fluctuations in the market are reflected in candlestick movements and policy iterations, but essentially are a game of people's expectations and the self-correction of market laws.
All asset fluctuations are a two-way rush of consensus and capital.
🧘 Conclusion:
Geopolitics is always the biggest variable in global capital markets; short-term fluctuations rewrite capital flows and asset pricing directly.
In the face of the upcoming super central bank week, don't let short-term ups and downs distract you.
Maintain the internal strength of unity of knowledge and action, penetrate surface fluctuations, anchor institutional dividends, capital increments, and the logic of real assets, to grasp the main line amid macro fog.
📌 LaoYao（@LaoYao_crypto ）
With mental philosophy as a blade, cut through the depths of power in the crypto world.