The White House’s new National Security Strategy under President Trump signals a global shift toward aggressive fiscal expansion, driven mainly by massive increases in defense spending. NATO allies are now urged to raise military budgets to 5% of GDP—over double the old 2% mandate—while Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan are also pushed to boost spending. This worldwide military buildup means governments will need to borrow far more, increasing the supply of bonds and likely pushing yields higher even if central banks try to cut rates. Elevated yields, sticky wages, and reduced immigration all point toward persistent inflation, which strengthens the case for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, already up 60% this year. Bitcoin, despite its “digital gold” narrative, has underperformed and remains down year-to-date. If global borrowing stays high and fiscal risks grow, gold may continue to shine, while BTC must prove whether it can truly behave as an inflation hedge in this new, more militarized economic environment.$BTC

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