#SpaceXSharesOpen29PercentAboveIPOPrice 29% up... opportunity or ceiling for SPCX?
Community, SpaceX's debut has been historic. Opening 29% above the IPO price and surpassing $2 trillion in market cap is no small feat. But that's precisely why now is the time to debate with a clear head, not just celebrate.
We need to put the numbers in context. While many are talking about shooting to Mars, the current price of the perpetuals already priced in massive euphoria. Remember when just a few days ago those same contracts hinted at a valuation of $2.2 trillion? In the end, the opening at $150 (an +11%) was more moderate than those speculative peaks, even though the subsequent rise is solid.
Moreover, there are two key points we can't ignore:
1. Real Liquidity: While the demand is colossal, it’s expected that only 5% of the shares will be in public hands. The remaining 95% is held by insiders who could sell when their restrictions expire in December. Are we ready for that potential supply wall?
2. Fundamental Metric: SpaceX is a tech beast, but it’s trading at about 60 times its estimated sales for this year. Serious analysts assign it a target value much lower than the current price.
My outlook is bullish long-term due to its dominance in launches and Starlink, but cautious short-term. This initial "pop" was the expected scenario. I believe we will see a correction or consolidation before continuing upward. Patience will be more profitable than FOMO.
What do you all think? Is this 29% surge the final lift-off or are we going to trap a lot of buyers in the stratosphere?
Community, SpaceX's debut has been historic. Opening 29% above the IPO price and surpassing $2 trillion in market cap is no small feat. But that's precisely why now is the time to debate with a clear head, not just celebrate.
We need to put the numbers in context. While many are talking about shooting to Mars, the current price of the perpetuals already priced in massive euphoria. Remember when just a few days ago those same contracts hinted at a valuation of $2.2 trillion? In the end, the opening at $150 (an +11%) was more moderate than those speculative peaks, even though the subsequent rise is solid.
Moreover, there are two key points we can't ignore:
1. Real Liquidity: While the demand is colossal, it’s expected that only 5% of the shares will be in public hands. The remaining 95% is held by insiders who could sell when their restrictions expire in December. Are we ready for that potential supply wall?
2. Fundamental Metric: SpaceX is a tech beast, but it’s trading at about 60 times its estimated sales for this year. Serious analysts assign it a target value much lower than the current price.
My outlook is bullish long-term due to its dominance in launches and Starlink, but cautious short-term. This initial "pop" was the expected scenario. I believe we will see a correction or consolidation before continuing upward. Patience will be more profitable than FOMO.
What do you all think? Is this 29% surge the final lift-off or are we going to trap a lot of buyers in the stratosphere?