[M1_mag7]
Old dog took a look at last night's chart, $AXTI pulled a 10.916%, current price at 101.71, daily trading volume surged to 6.81 million, and for the same pool, this movement isn't small. I checked the funding rate, 0.00160878, positive, meaning the bulls have to pay interest to the bears every eight hours. On the position side, OI hasn't exploded, staying steady at 24977.5 contracts, indicating no new money is flooding in, mostly existing bulls are adding to their positions. I've seen this setup many times. When the price rises, the funding rate is positive but OI doesn't skyrocket; it's usually not a FOMO top but more like mid-term holders are repricing.
The on-chain US stock futures market is quite subtle; its correlation with SPY and QQQ is tighter than many think. This wave of $AXTI 's rise coincided with tonight's mildly positive US stock index futures, even though the spot market hasn't opened, TradFi contract liquidity has already priced in the sentiment. I overlaid the 24h minute chart with the NASDAQ futures, and $AXTI hasn't really shown an independent trend, with a beta around 1.4. To put it plainly, someone is borrowing the expectation of a market rebound to pull a high beta asset in the on-chain futures market. The last similar setup was in early December during that rebound, where $AXTI surged 15% in two days, and then when the NASDAQ spot opened, it actually gapped up and retraced, with many who chased the long side later losing a lot of profit due to funding rates.
Right now, I’m keeping an eye on the sustainability of the funding rate. If the positive rate continues at this level, bulls will bleed every eight hours, meaning that even if the price consolidates, the holding costs will wash out the shaky bulls. And while the bears are passively paying, OI hasn't seen a significant rise, I doubt the bears dare to heavily increase their positions at this level. The market consensus is currently leaning towards $AXTI pushing higher, but old dog tends to think the opposite in such cases. Can the market correlation last? If SPY futures weaken tonight, the independent buying of $AXTI won't hold against this funding rate. I calculated that the current price is only 3% away from the integer level of 105, which might be a dense take-profit area for short-term bulls. I'll clear half of my observation position if $AXTI drops below 98.5, keeping some core holdings until then, but I won't add.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #AXTI #AXTIUSDT $AXTI
Old dog took a look at last night's chart, $AXTI pulled a 10.916%, current price at 101.71, daily trading volume surged to 6.81 million, and for the same pool, this movement isn't small. I checked the funding rate, 0.00160878, positive, meaning the bulls have to pay interest to the bears every eight hours. On the position side, OI hasn't exploded, staying steady at 24977.5 contracts, indicating no new money is flooding in, mostly existing bulls are adding to their positions. I've seen this setup many times. When the price rises, the funding rate is positive but OI doesn't skyrocket; it's usually not a FOMO top but more like mid-term holders are repricing.
The on-chain US stock futures market is quite subtle; its correlation with SPY and QQQ is tighter than many think. This wave of $AXTI 's rise coincided with tonight's mildly positive US stock index futures, even though the spot market hasn't opened, TradFi contract liquidity has already priced in the sentiment. I overlaid the 24h minute chart with the NASDAQ futures, and $AXTI hasn't really shown an independent trend, with a beta around 1.4. To put it plainly, someone is borrowing the expectation of a market rebound to pull a high beta asset in the on-chain futures market. The last similar setup was in early December during that rebound, where $AXTI surged 15% in two days, and then when the NASDAQ spot opened, it actually gapped up and retraced, with many who chased the long side later losing a lot of profit due to funding rates.
Right now, I’m keeping an eye on the sustainability of the funding rate. If the positive rate continues at this level, bulls will bleed every eight hours, meaning that even if the price consolidates, the holding costs will wash out the shaky bulls. And while the bears are passively paying, OI hasn't seen a significant rise, I doubt the bears dare to heavily increase their positions at this level. The market consensus is currently leaning towards $AXTI pushing higher, but old dog tends to think the opposite in such cases. Can the market correlation last? If SPY futures weaken tonight, the independent buying of $AXTI won't hold against this funding rate. I calculated that the current price is only 3% away from the integer level of 105, which might be a dense take-profit area for short-term bulls. I'll clear half of my observation position if $AXTI drops below 98.5, keeping some core holdings until then, but I won't add.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #AXTI #AXTIUSDT $AXTI