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Sweden vs. Tunisia Probabilities

Sweden is favored to win with a 49.8% probability when facing Tunisia in their Group F match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Here are the details of the match's outcome probabilities and an analysis of the chances for both teams:

Match Result Probabilities (90 Minutes):

Based on statistical data and prediction markets ahead of the match at the BBVA Stadium in Monterrey, here are the percentage chances of the outcome:

Final Result:

Probability of a Sweden win: 49.8% – 52%

Draw: 27.5% – 28%

Tunisia win: 22.0% – 22.7%

Key Factors:

Sweden's Attacking Power:

Graham Potter's team is highly favored due to its sharp attack led by Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak. Sweden qualified for the finals through a dramatic playoff after defeating Ukraine and Poland. Tunisia's defense: On the other hand, Tunisia came into the tournament with an impressive clean sheet throughout the African qualifying campaign (CAF). However, their performance was questioned after a crushing 5-0 defeat to Belgium in their final friendly, revealing a significant gap when facing a strong European team. Most bookmakers and observers predicted this match would be a tight affair with a narrow final scoreline of 1-0 or 2-1 in favor of Sweden.