BTC update — weekend changed everything 👀
So we hit exactly where the chart said we would and got back into that upper 4H zone around $65.5K. last week after CPI we had two scenarios on the table, and the "buy to sell" one played out - market pumped us into a problem zone after flushing the local oversold from $60.7K.
But the weekend flipped the script completely. Iran-US escalation turned into a peace deal announcement, signing scheduled for June 19. That removes the geopolitical fear that's been pressuring crypto. Suddenly there's room to breathe upward.
Big question: how much do we trust this deal? Going from direct strikes to "peace in 3 days" is... fast. Classic setup for "buy the rumor, sell the news" right around the 19th. Add Fed meeting on June 17 with first real commentary from Kevin Warsh sitting right in that window.
Three scenarios I'm watching:
A: Bounce in the FVG zone (~64K), liquidity grab, then V-shaped move back up toward ATH retest at $69.2K. Base case on de-escalation.
B: Deeper retest to ~62K first, stop hunt on late longs, then strong impulse to $69K+. Same mechanics, deeper setup before the move.
C: The trap: price pulls everyone into longs, tests $69K, then reverses hard with equity markets, cascading down to $58-52K. If the deal turns out to be "paper only" this comes back fast.
What's bugging me:
The deal itself raises more questions than answers. Any breakdown gets punished hard FED tone on the 17th matters more than the rate itself S&P keeps printing ATHs with minor pullbacks. Gold did the same thing for a long time before its cycle ended summer + thin liquidity + deep wicks = perfect environment for fakeouts both ways.
What i'm doing:
If short BTC is moving to breakeven, deal news = no mercy for shorts. Not aggressively longing into "peace" headlines though — waiting for reaction at upper FVG or a clean retest to 62-64K with confirmation. Altcoins with rotation potential stay on the radar, but tight risk only.
DYOR! Not financial advice
$BTC #BTC #Trading
So we hit exactly where the chart said we would and got back into that upper 4H zone around $65.5K. last week after CPI we had two scenarios on the table, and the "buy to sell" one played out - market pumped us into a problem zone after flushing the local oversold from $60.7K.
But the weekend flipped the script completely. Iran-US escalation turned into a peace deal announcement, signing scheduled for June 19. That removes the geopolitical fear that's been pressuring crypto. Suddenly there's room to breathe upward.
Big question: how much do we trust this deal? Going from direct strikes to "peace in 3 days" is... fast. Classic setup for "buy the rumor, sell the news" right around the 19th. Add Fed meeting on June 17 with first real commentary from Kevin Warsh sitting right in that window.
Three scenarios I'm watching:
A: Bounce in the FVG zone (~64K), liquidity grab, then V-shaped move back up toward ATH retest at $69.2K. Base case on de-escalation.
B: Deeper retest to ~62K first, stop hunt on late longs, then strong impulse to $69K+. Same mechanics, deeper setup before the move.
C: The trap: price pulls everyone into longs, tests $69K, then reverses hard with equity markets, cascading down to $58-52K. If the deal turns out to be "paper only" this comes back fast.
What's bugging me:
The deal itself raises more questions than answers. Any breakdown gets punished hard FED tone on the 17th matters more than the rate itself S&P keeps printing ATHs with minor pullbacks. Gold did the same thing for a long time before its cycle ended summer + thin liquidity + deep wicks = perfect environment for fakeouts both ways.
What i'm doing:
If short BTC is moving to breakeven, deal news = no mercy for shorts. Not aggressively longing into "peace" headlines though — waiting for reaction at upper FVG or a clean retest to 62-64K with confirmation. Altcoins with rotation potential stay on the radar, but tight risk only.
DYOR! Not financial advice
$BTC #BTC #Trading