The US-Iran deal is in play, easing Fed rate hike expectations. Iranian oil is set to re-enter the global market, and falling oil prices are directly reducing inflationary pressures, which indirectly lowers the necessity for the Fed to keep tightening. Also, with oil prices dropping, hawkish rate hike expectations are cooling off, leading to a weaker dollar that boosts gold prices.
Gold is bouncing back (I’m talking about the Fed, not Japan).
The future trajectory of gold will largely depend on what the FOMC has to say about potential rate cuts.
This morning I saw the protocol and knew it wasn't that simple. Trump just loves to play with candlesticks; when major interests are at stake, nobody's gonna compromise easily. Still bearish on $BTC .
The reason I'm bullish on stablecoins while also believing that the Fed's balance sheet reduction is inevitable is fundamentally due to the strong logical connection between the two.\nFrom the asset side, the issuance mechanism of mainstream stablecoins dictates that for every $1 in circulation, there's usually $1 of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds backing it up as reserves. The core operation of the Fed's balance sheet reduction involves actively selling or not renewing purchases of U.S. debt, pulling liquidity out of the market. At this point, stablecoins, as significant buyers of U.S. Treasuries, become an indispensable hedging tool during this balance sheet reduction process, providing the Fed with stable market absorption to prevent extreme volatility in the Treasury market due to sell-offs.\n\nFurthermore, during a rate-cutting cycle, stablecoins also play a critical role. The cheap dollar liquidity resulting from rate cuts could potentially raise inflationary pressures globally, but stablecoins, by redirecting dollar liquidity to external markets, can effectively harvest benefits from smaller countries lacking independent monetary policies, while simultaneously strengthening the dollar's position as a global settlement and reserve currency, reinforcing the credibility of the dollar.
Finally got the short opportunity I've been waiting for! CL keeps dropping, what's the play here!! As long as the Fed doesn't cut rates, I'm still bearish $BTC .
CPI is basically bearish $BTC The overall data meets expectations, but!! Compared to history, inflation pressures are still at extremely high levels, and high inflation is driving the Fed to restart rate hikes.