MERL weakened signals are becoming increasingly obvious: on-chain large holder actions are starting to seem off, and the price could return to the 0.2 range at any time.

$MERL Weakened signals are becoming increasingly obvious: on-chain large holder actions are starting to seem off, and the price could return to the 0.2 range at any time.

Recently, the trend of MERL has become increasingly intriguing. The actions appearing on-chain do not seem to indicate a preparation to continue pushing upwards. Especially the day before yesterday, a large holder directly dumped 16 million MERL into Bybit (on-chain data: https://scan.merlinchain.io/tx/0xfa6a7c64fbd796c88cc098b10abc223f2a2440ab56e25ff94e96d9d40d61f059) — this scale is not a small matter, but rather the kind of magnitude that indicates 'something is about to happen.'

This kind of behavior on-chain is most afraid of 'chain reactions'. You can throw one transaction in without issue, but once the market sees it, it's hard for everyone to pretend they didn't see it. Especially under conditions where MERL doesn't have a strong trend, a large amount entering the exchange often pulls sentiment down, and the market instinctively treats it as a risk signal, leading to more conservative buying.

From this perspective, the current structure of MERL clearly looks more like it's heading down, rather than brewing a breakout. As long as another similar large transfer into the exchange occurs, market sentiment could hit the brakes directly.

Given the current rhythm of on-chain behavior, a price retracement to the 0.2 range is completely unsurprising, and it might even be a position for reversal after the market sentiment is cleaned up.

In simple terms: right now, this market doesn't seem like anyone wants to hold on, but rather seems like it's giving the stage to the bears.

My personal inclination: bearish, waiting for it to carve out a cleaner downward space, which would then have value for re-entering.

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