6.16｜The whole network is shouting 'this is the one chance for twenty years of glory,' but the day after the indices hit new highs, I liquidated half my positions and stood on the sidelines.

'Twenty years of glory or a lifetime of mediocrity.'
These past couple of days, I've seen this phrase popping up again. With the agreements signed and all three major indices hitting new highs, it's like everyone's shouting, 'This is the one chance the times are giving us!' and 'If you don't jump on the train now, it's too late!' It feels like if you don't take a big risk, you'll be stuck living a mediocre life.
What I want to say is the exact opposite. The more everyone is shouting about 'twenty years of glory,' the more I want to hit the brakes.
Hey guys, this time it's for real.
Trump officially announced on Sunday night that the US-Iran agreement is 'done,' no longer just 'memorandum' or 'draft'—it's signed. The market literally exploded:
The Nasdaq soared 3.07% to close at 26,683, marking its best single day since March 31; the S&P rose 1.65% to 7,554, nearing an all-time high; the Dow jumped 469 points to close at 51,671, setting a new closing record. Oil prices fell by 5% to around 80, the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen, and even the Vice President said the strait would be "free passage" for a long time.
A couple of days ago, I was still doubting whether this agreement would be TACO'd again, but they really signed it; I have to admit that — this time, Trump didn't back down at the last moment.
But the more the indices reach new highs, and everyone thinks "glory for twenty years" is right around the corner, the more I want to say something deflating.
[New highs are achieved by "bad news disappearing", not by "improved fundamentals"]You need to think clearly about how this new high came about: it wasn't because corporate profits suddenly got strong, nor did inflation just vanish; it was due to a geopolitical bad news that lingered for over a month finally being lifted. The disappearance of bad news is indeed worth a pump — but it's a rise from the "fear receding", not from "value increasing".
The difference between the two is crucial: the rise from fear receding is a one-off, it ends once it's done; but a truly sustainable bull market relies on profits and fundamentals to take over. Right now, the geopolitical bad news is gone, but those two heavy inflation punches from last week (CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%) are still on the table.
Today, oil prices dropped, temporarily drowning out the inflation chatter, but drowning it out doesn't mean it's resolved. Once the market calms down from the "peace at last" excitement, it will have to face the old issue of "inflation is still here, rate cuts are still tough" sooner or later. I'm not saying it will drop tomorrow; I'm saying don't mistake the rebound from "bad news disappearing" as a signal that "good times are back".
[SPCX is up 20% again, but please listen to that analyst's second half of the sentence]SPCX rose another 20% the next day, breaking 192. A couple of days ago, I said, "don’t chase on the first day, see the truth on the second day", and it turned out to be even stronger the next day. Did that slap me in the face?
No. Listen to what an analyst said today — he indeed mentioned that SPCX still has room to rise, but the reason is "it will soon be included in major indices, bringing a wave of passive buying". The key is his second half: once the index inclusion event passes, valuations will start to matter. He even likened it to meme stocks (remember that wave of retail investor favorite stocks back in the day): valuations can rise to heights you can't imagine, but ultimately, they will all revert to normal.
To translate: SPCX is rising now, driven by the expectation that "indices will buy it", not because "this company is worth that much money". Mechanistic buying will run out someday, and when that day comes, the 1.77 trillion valuation, the 90 times sales ratio — which have been obscured by the frenzy — will come back to talk to you. So, let it rise, but I’ll repeat: wait until it shifts from "mechanical and emotional pricing" back to "fundamental pricing" before you decide if it’s worth it.
I'm happy for the market that the agreement is signed, but my account didn't make a single move because of it.
The reasoning remains the same: today’s rise is because that geopolitical variable, which I can't predict, happened to land in a good direction. But the next variable (inflation, SPCX valuation returning, details of the agreement execution) is equally unpredictable. I won’t get cocky because I guessed this "fear receding" correctly, nor will I regret not accumulating more at the lows — I never planned to make money by betting on these news.
I stick to my routine every day. I buy a little less when hitting new highs, and a little more during pullbacks. Whether the index hits new highs or not has nothing to do with my discipline.
So back to that opening line, "glory for twenty years or being a loser for a lifetime" — my answer is: what truly brings you glory is never just hitting the jackpot on a lucky bet; it’s whether you can maintain your rhythm when everyone is shouting, "this opportunity is just this once". The most dangerous moments are often not the day of a big drop but rather when the market is soaring, and everyone thinks, "the rain has passed, it's time to jump in". A big drop teaches you fear, but a big rise truly tests your discipline. Today, everyone is celebrating; being able to hold back from chasing is harder and more valuable than resisting the urge to sell during last week's drop.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Investing carries risks. This new high is driven by the lifting of geopolitical bad news; inflation pressure remains, and new stock valuations are high, so future volatility may increase. The above is purely personal observation and my own approach, not constituting any investment advice. Please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.#美股超话 