The Fed's decision has landed.
This time, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
$BTC $ETH $SPCX
On the surface, it's neutral.
But what’s really got the market on edge isn’t the ‘no rate hike’ but the details coming after.
First, the dot plot leans hawkish.
Out of 19 officials, 9 expect at least one more rate hike this year, while only 1 predicts a rate cut.
This isn’t the same as the market’s prior hopes for a ‘wait for rate cuts’ logic.
Second, inflation expectations have been raised.
The Fed has increased its projections for 2026 PCE and core PCE.
This indicates that they’re more concerned now about inflation not being under control.
Third, Warsh’s first meeting had a clear style:
Less commitment.
Less talk about easing.
Let the market interpret the data itself.
So every upcoming CPI, non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and US Treasury yield changes could lead to re-pricing.
Post-meeting, the market reaction was straightforward:
US Treasury yields climbed.
The dollar strengthened.
US stocks faced pressure.
BTC dropped from around 66,000 back to the 64,000 range.
This isn’t a coincidence.
BTC is no longer just a crypto asset; it’s also being priced based on macro liquidity.
I’m primarily watching a few levels:
66,000
The first repair line post-meeting; if it can’t reclaim this, short-term pressure remains.
68,000–70,000
The bounce confirmation zone; it needs to stabilize here to qualify for further recovery talks.
60,000–62,000
Shallow bottom defense line; watch for support on any retests here.
52,000–56,000
Main bottom observation zone; it might not reach this, but keep a close eye if macro pressures persist.
Upcoming key dates:
June 24–28
CME BTC futures settlement window; volatility might spike.
July 14
US CPI; will determine if the market continues to trade on ‘higher rates for longer’.
July 28–31
FOMC + Bank of Japan; the next macro pricing window.
August 12 – mid-September
New CPI and September FOMC; could become a main bottom observation window.
My judgment is simple:
This time, the Fed isn’t a disaster.
But it reminds the market:
Don’t bet too early on rate cuts.
Don’t mistake a bounce for a reversal too soon.
Until capital returns, a bounce is just that—a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, a repair isn’t a reversal.
First, observe the events.
Then, watch the prices.
Finally, see which side the capital stands on.
#BTC走势分析 #沃什首次FOMC维持利率 #CPI #ETF
This time, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
$BTC $ETH $SPCX
On the surface, it's neutral.
But what’s really got the market on edge isn’t the ‘no rate hike’ but the details coming after.
First, the dot plot leans hawkish.
Out of 19 officials, 9 expect at least one more rate hike this year, while only 1 predicts a rate cut.
This isn’t the same as the market’s prior hopes for a ‘wait for rate cuts’ logic.
Second, inflation expectations have been raised.
The Fed has increased its projections for 2026 PCE and core PCE.
This indicates that they’re more concerned now about inflation not being under control.
Third, Warsh’s first meeting had a clear style:
Less commitment.
Less talk about easing.
Let the market interpret the data itself.
So every upcoming CPI, non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and US Treasury yield changes could lead to re-pricing.
Post-meeting, the market reaction was straightforward:
US Treasury yields climbed.
The dollar strengthened.
US stocks faced pressure.
BTC dropped from around 66,000 back to the 64,000 range.
This isn’t a coincidence.
BTC is no longer just a crypto asset; it’s also being priced based on macro liquidity.
I’m primarily watching a few levels:
66,000
The first repair line post-meeting; if it can’t reclaim this, short-term pressure remains.
68,000–70,000
The bounce confirmation zone; it needs to stabilize here to qualify for further recovery talks.
60,000–62,000
Shallow bottom defense line; watch for support on any retests here.
52,000–56,000
Main bottom observation zone; it might not reach this, but keep a close eye if macro pressures persist.
Upcoming key dates:
June 24–28
CME BTC futures settlement window; volatility might spike.
July 14
US CPI; will determine if the market continues to trade on ‘higher rates for longer’.
July 28–31
FOMC + Bank of Japan; the next macro pricing window.
August 12 – mid-September
New CPI and September FOMC; could become a main bottom observation window.
My judgment is simple:
This time, the Fed isn’t a disaster.
But it reminds the market:
Don’t bet too early on rate cuts.
Don’t mistake a bounce for a reversal too soon.
Until capital returns, a bounce is just that—a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, a repair isn’t a reversal.
First, observe the events.
Then, watch the prices.
Finally, see which side the capital stands on.
#BTC走势分析 #沃什首次FOMC维持利率 #CPI #ETF