Intel's stock price surged about 10% after President Trump revealed that Apple would be collaborating with Intel on semiconductor production. This pump has allowed INTC to break through a resistance level it had failed to breach twice before.
On the charts, the breakout looks bullish. However, the money flow, crypto traders, and options market are showing more cautious sentiment.
The spike in Intel's stock price is due to the Apple news.
Intel Corporation (INTC) saw a major pump on Thursday. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple (AAPL) has agreed to design and manufacture semiconductors in the U.S.
$INTC heads to a higher open after President Trump said $AAPL has agreed to work with #Intel on chip production. This follows strategic partnerships with $NVDA and Elon Musk’s #TeraFab. Intel also benefits from a shift towards inference and #AgenticAI workloads that increase…
— FXCM (@FXCMOfficial) June 18, 2026
However, both companies have not officially recognized this trade. This point is important since Washington owns a part of Intel's shares. The U.S. government purchased about 10% of Intel's shares in August 2025.
This recent surge is a movement wrapping up a strong bullish trend. Intel's stock price has nearly tripled in 2026, thanks to collaborations with Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA). The demand for agentic AI, or autonomously operating software, has also contributed to increased sales of Intel semiconductors.
Risk factors still remain. Intel's foundry division has failed to turn profitable. The PC market is also facing headwinds.
$Intel Appoints Qualcomm Exec to Lead PC and Physical AI Business – Outlook TurbochargedIntel taps Qualcomm veteran for AI PC push; strong sales forecast signals CPU demand from agentic AI and inference workloads. Shares hit records.Risk: PC market decline in H2.…
— NIKVEST (@nikvestx) May 5, 2026
The INTC chart illustrates the initial part of this situation.
INTC breaks through a resistance level where it faced resistance twice.
This surge has broken $132.70, a price level that has previously halted Intel's upward movement twice. This pattern is a 'double top', where the stock halts at the same high point.
INTC's stock price has broken out strongly. On Thursday, 233.91 million shares were traded, surpassing the volume recorded at the same price level at the end of May.
Fund flows are also changing. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator tracks institutional buying and selling pressure. This indicator has risen from negative to zero, suggesting selling pressure is weakening and large investors are re-entering.
However, the CMF is at a neutral level, so it is not yet a fully confirmed buy signal. The buying pressure is not conclusively established, which is why the market remains cautious.
Price and volume suggest bullishness. However, positioning reveals another aspect. Such signals can also be observed among crypto traders.
Crypto traders are still betting on Intel's decline.
The crypto desk has not yet entered a buy on Intel's breakout. In the hyperliquid exchange offering perpetual futures, smart money remains net short on Intel. Perpetual futures are contracts that track prices without an expiration date.
According to Nansen data, short positions total $7.41 million while long positions are $2.90 million. Consequently, a total net short of $4.51 million is recorded across 21 wallets.
However, the selling pressure on Intel is smaller compared to the short positions held by the crowd on Nvidia or Micron. Intel's long to short ratio stands at 0.39, which is among the least bearish levels of bullish-bearish betting.
Additionally, the ratio is on the rise. This suggests that some traders are reducing their shorts following news from Apple. Still, it has not yet transitioned to net buying.
The options market shows the same caution in a different aspect.
The options market is giving mixed signals.
Intel's put-call ratio is displaying mixed signals. This compares the puts, which profit from price declines, to the calls, which profit from price increases. A ratio below 1 is interpreted as bullish, while above 1 indicates bearishness.
On a daily volume basis, the ratio fell from 0.68 on June 17 to 0.51 on June 18. Traders actively bought calls as the stock price surged. In terms of open interest, the ratio increased from 1.02 to 1.04 during the same period. Existing positions have slightly tilted more towards puts.
There's a reason for this division. Short-term traders chased upward momentum with calls, expecting a rapid succession of gains. Meanwhile, long-term investors added puts as a precaution against breakout failure risk.
Thus, while the recent influx of funds appears bullish, existing positions maintain a defensive stance. Buying puts when the stock price surges is merely a typical hedge strategy, not a signal of confidence. Another cautious signal.
This defensive posture is particularly significant at critical price levels.
Key price levels determining the path of Intel's stock price.
Now, looking at Intel's price range, the situation becomes clearer. The upper resistance at $132.70 aligns with a major technical support at $132.63. This overlap indicates that as long as $132.70 holds, it represents a strong support level.
On the upside, $140.69 serves as a strong historical point at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, about 5% away. If this level is convincingly breached, the next targets are $152.16 and $166.76.
The risk factor is a bullish trap, a fake breakout that ensnares buyers before a price reversal. If the CMF turns below 0 and market sentiment weakens, the upward trend may collapse. If it declines, levels of $124.58, $114.62, and even lower at $98.51 will be exposed. This risk exists, hence the overall market is somewhat cautious.
As of now, the breakout has indeed occurred but remains weak. The price has breached resistance, yet the CMF is neutral, and crypto traders are maintaining net short positions, with increasing puts in open interest. News related to Apple has lifted Intel's stock, but institutions or crypto traders have not clearly transitioned to a bullish stance.
If the CMF manages a positive crossover above $132.70, then the $140 range becomes a major resistance. Conversely, if the price drops below $132.70 and the CMF weakens, the breakout attempt may risk becoming a 'trap' down to the $124 range.