On June 22, JMIC updated its assessment:
The security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters has been downgraded to 'Moderate'
At the same time, shipping traffic via the Oman-Iran route is rebounding
๐ข Key Changes
Maritime security risk rating โ Downgraded
Hormuz shipping activity โ Increasing
Shipping passage recovery is picking up pace
๐ Market Reaction Logic
Although thereโs no direct price volatility data, market pricing logic has started to adjust:
Geopolitical tensions are easing marginally
Shipping and energy transport risk premiums are falling
The 'war premium' on crude oil is being further compressed
Uncertainty in risk assets is decreasing
๐ง Market Perspective Interpretation
The core of this change is not 'safe recovery', but:
๐ The market is starting to price in 'de-escalation expectations' early
๐ก Trading Implications
โ Short-Term:
Risk Premium Pullback
Crude Oil Volatility Convergence
Pressure on Risk Assets Easing
โ Mid-Term:
Geopolitical Factors Losing Impact
Macro Liquidity Re-emerging as the Main Driver
Market Returning to Data and Policy Trading Logic
๐งฉ One-Liner Summary
Cooling in Hormuz, essentially is:
๐ Shifting from 'war pricing' back to 'normal market pricing'
