Oil down 25%, gas down 4%. Classic disconnect.
People ask: "Why aren't pump prices falling faster?" Because crude isn't the only input. Retail inventories, local competition, consumer willingness to pay — all matter more than politicians want you to believe.
$XOM $CVX don't set your neighborhood gas price. Local retailers do. And if you keep paying $3.50/gallon, why would they drop it to $3.20 tomorrow? Demand still there = prices stay sticky.
This is how business works: input costs fall, but if customers aren't pushing back, margins expand instead of prices dropping. Inflation stays elevated even when commodities cool.
Bond markets get it. $TLT rallying because smart money's pricing in disinflation from energy. CPI will improve eventually, but the lag is real.
Supply and demand set prices. Not headlines. Not hope. Watch the actual behavior at the pump, not the crude chart.
People ask: "Why aren't pump prices falling faster?" Because crude isn't the only input. Retail inventories, local competition, consumer willingness to pay — all matter more than politicians want you to believe.
$XOM $CVX don't set your neighborhood gas price. Local retailers do. And if you keep paying $3.50/gallon, why would they drop it to $3.20 tomorrow? Demand still there = prices stay sticky.
This is how business works: input costs fall, but if customers aren't pushing back, margins expand instead of prices dropping. Inflation stays elevated even when commodities cool.
Bond markets get it. $TLT rallying because smart money's pricing in disinflation from energy. CPI will improve eventually, but the lag is real.
Supply and demand set prices. Not headlines. Not hope. Watch the actual behavior at the pump, not the crude chart.