$BTC – FOMC Reversal Update
The FOMC reversal played out largely as expected. ✅
Our short from 67k worked well, with price topping out just before the meeting—consistent with the typical pattern. From the peak, Bitcoin has dropped about 13%, which remains within the expected range while the daily chart continues to trade sideways.
Current outlook:
Macro: I still expect the cycle bottom to form around 60k, not 50k.
Daily: Range-bound until a confirmed breakout.
Hourly: Local range remains intact until price breaks out.
Looking back, I'm pleased with how the trade unfolded. We shorted from 67k down to 62.6k, then flipped long at 62.6k, catching the move to 65.5k.
Missing the 66k target by a small margin was frustrating, and I also started building long positions a bit early at 61.8k, where the bounce was only around 2–3%.
The lingering effects of the FOMC reversal around 60k have slowed the recovery toward 66k, but that's simply part of trading.
The strategy hasn't changed. We're still positioned for the long setup, and I don't trade multiple opposing scenarios at once. I follow one plan until the market proves it's wrong,and so far, it hasn't.
Now we let the market decide the next move.
#AppleFalls6.1% #KoreaActivatesSidecarAsKOSPI200FuturesFall5%
The FOMC reversal played out largely as expected. ✅
Our short from 67k worked well, with price topping out just before the meeting—consistent with the typical pattern. From the peak, Bitcoin has dropped about 13%, which remains within the expected range while the daily chart continues to trade sideways.
Current outlook:
Macro: I still expect the cycle bottom to form around 60k, not 50k.
Daily: Range-bound until a confirmed breakout.
Hourly: Local range remains intact until price breaks out.
Looking back, I'm pleased with how the trade unfolded. We shorted from 67k down to 62.6k, then flipped long at 62.6k, catching the move to 65.5k.
Missing the 66k target by a small margin was frustrating, and I also started building long positions a bit early at 61.8k, where the bounce was only around 2–3%.
The lingering effects of the FOMC reversal around 60k have slowed the recovery toward 66k, but that's simply part of trading.
The strategy hasn't changed. We're still positioned for the long setup, and I don't trade multiple opposing scenarios at once. I follow one plan until the market proves it's wrong,and so far, it hasn't.
Now we let the market decide the next move.
#AppleFalls6.1% #KoreaActivatesSidecarAsKOSPI200FuturesFall5%